833
FXUS62 KCHS 231127
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF LONGWAVE RIDGING FORMING OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA
WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OUTER BANKS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FURTHER
OFFSHORE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH, IT'S FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY
WILL SPLIT OFF INTO ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT, BUT IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR WATERS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE OVERNIGHT BEING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND THE
BEACHES, TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE, AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH SHOULD STALL OR WASH OUT. PERHAPS THE MOST INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH DAY, WHILE LOWS ONLY DROP TO
THE LOW 50S. THESE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BRINGS A
NOTABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING A BIG THREAT FOR RAINFALL WITH EXTENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATING LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE FOR 0.01" IN 24
HOURS. SO MAIN IMPACT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THOUGH, IT'S FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL SPLIT OFF INTO ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, BUT IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH OUR WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER AS TIME PROGRESSES AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM SHOULD EXPIRE THIS
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.
WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...ETM
MARINE...ETM
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