359
FXUS62 KCHS 241123
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
623 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY, STALL JUST NORTH
OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING, THEN LIFT BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THOUGH, CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S, EXCEPT COOLER AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS THROUGH LATE
WEEK/SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WHILE A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO OR TOWARDS THE
AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL NEARBY BEFORE
LIFTING BACK NORTH LATER FRIDAY. MAIN IMPACT WITH THE FRONT WILL
BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY "COOLER"
TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ZONES DEPENDING WHERE THE FRONT ENDS
UP. OTHERWISE, ON THE WHOLE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST. THESE VALUES ARE SHY OF
RECORDS, BUT STILL 10-15 ABOVE LATE DECEMBER NORMALS. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY
BEFORE PASSING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SEND A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA, PASSING OFFSHORE
LIKELY MONDAY MORNING. RAIN THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL WITH THE FRONT,
WITH NBM AND ENSEMBLE PROBS SHOWING ONLY A 15-20% CHANCE FOR
>0.01" IN 24 HOURS AND LESS THAN 5% FOR >0.10". A NOTICEABLE
COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FOLLOWING FROPA, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUB-
FREEZING TEMPS TO RETURN BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR. CHANCE FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY,
STALL JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING, THEN LIFT BACK
NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TRANQUIL MARINE
CONDITIONS WITH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. THE MAIN
TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...ETM
MARINE...ETM
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