260
FXUS62 KCHS 020919
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
419 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY, YIELDING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEN,
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL AFTERWARDS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL MAINTAIN
ITS INFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AS IT MEANDERS EVER SO
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE MORE QUIET DAY FOR
THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEFORE A
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL WELL TO THE NORTH OVER NORTH
CAROLINA AS BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TRIES TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT PROPAGATES INTO THE LOWER-MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH THE
POLAR JET PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COAST. HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING EAST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AND THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE MID-UPPER 60S EXCEPT LOWER 60S AT THE BEACHES.
TONIGHT: A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL HELP CONSOLIDATE/SHARPEN LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
THE CYCLONE'S WARM SECTOR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS LIKELY TO ONLY
FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT THE
BEACHES. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN ZONES PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK AIDED BY STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT. POPS RANGE FROM 50-70% ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA INTO ALLENDALE, HAMPTON AND
COLLETON COUNTIES IN THE LOWCOUNTRY TO 10-30% ELSEWHERE, LOWEST
AROUND THE LUDOWICI AND DARIEN AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY: AS MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING SHIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MARCH THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH PWATS RANGING 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, THE AREA WILL REMAIN WARM-SECTORED AND
TEMPS. ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SC AND MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EARLY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. IT'S
POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG SHEAR AND LOW CAPE EVENT.
IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGHEST
IN SOUTHEAST GA AS THE MAGNITUDE OF DIURNAL HEATING SEEMS TO BE
MORE PREVALENT HERE THAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED SOUTHEAST GA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST SC IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES ACROSS A 24-HR
PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT DRY, COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO
NUDGE ITSELF INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 40S IN
EXTREME SOUTHEAST GA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE REGION IN
WAKE OF THE MID-LVL SHORTWAVE SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE.
NOTICEABLE CAA WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A NORTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC AND MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPECT QUIET AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
02/12Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 03/12Z. THE LEADING EDGE OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST COULD APPROACH THE
TERMINALS RIGHT AT THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT
KCHS AND KJZI. NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE, BUT A
MENTION OF RAINFALL AND REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT
RESULT IN LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE ARE NO MARINE CONCERNS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND A COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER NORTH CAROLINA TO
SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT OVER THE SOUTH
SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH NEARSHORE LEG THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS FOR ALL REMAINING
MARINE LEGS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT, BUT WILL
BUILD 2-4 FT OVER THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH LEG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PASS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND YIELD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. ALSO, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PASS
OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY MORNING,
WINDS SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL MIX INTO THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT (WITH 4 TO 6
FT IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS). HOWEVER, SEAS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY TAPER BACK TO 2 TO 3 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
BEGINNING 15Z SATURDAY UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
TIDES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND. WIND DIRECTIONS REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR HIGH TIDAL DEPARTURES EARLY WEEKEND, BUT
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS CHARLESTON COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ON
SUNDAY, SFC WINDS TURN MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING,
LIKELY LEADING TO GREATER TIDAL DEPARTURES. ALTHOUGH RAIN
LIKELY ENDS BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS CURRENTLY PREDICTED IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ374.
77/ACD
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