526
FXUS62 KCHS 021810
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
110 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY,
YIELDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON: ALOFT, A ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WITH WEAK H5 VORT
ENERGY AND H25 JETTING SUPPORTING SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC, A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS FLORIDA, FAVORING
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. IN GENERAL, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON SOME
RETURNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16 ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LVL DRY AIR DEPICTED
ON LOCAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY NEGATE ANY PRECIP REACHING
THE GROUND THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
FOR ALL AREAS INTO THE EVENING.
TONIGHT: A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
HELPING DEVELOP/SHARPEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SFC WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN MUCH
OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMING WARM-SECTORED DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AS A RESULT, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER-MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP TO ARRIVE WITH MORE FAVORABLE
FORCING ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 50-70% POPS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA STARTING A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA LATE, IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY IN THE MORNING. IT'LL SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY, TRAVERSING OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN SHIFTING
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL, THERE WILL BE A JET STREAK FOLLOWING
THIS SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE, IN THE MORNING A FRONT SHOULD
STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EASTWARD, BEING LOCATED JUST WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
GA, WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT AID IN DEFINING THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH PWATS EASILY EXCEEDING
1", AND VALUES POSSIBLY PEAKING AROUND 1.5" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA AT DAYBREAK,
FOLLOWED BY SOME LETUP LATER IN THE MORNING, BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLY
MORE POTENT ROUND MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE SPC HIGHLIGHTING AREAS SOUTH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT'S A HIGH
SHEAR LOW CAPE EVENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR COULD BE 40-50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH SURFACE AND MLCAPES STAY BELOW 1,000 J/KG, WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AFTER PEAK HEATING. THIS IS
PARTLY BECAUSE THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN TIER MAYBE HITTING THE MID 50S AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES APPROACHING THE
LOWER 70S. SO WHILE STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-16 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LUCKILY,
THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 0.5-0.75"
RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL PUT A DENT IN OUR DROUGHT, BUT THE DRY GROUND SHOULD DO A GOOD
JOB AT ABSORBING THE RAINFALL, THUS LIMITING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
ANY RAINFALL AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH IT EXPECTED TO BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN TIER, TO THE
MID 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MID-LEVEL TROUGHING LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING OUR AREA DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. NORTHERLY FLOW AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR RAIN/SHOWERS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED AT ALL TERMINALS STARTING AT 10Z
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY AT
ALL TERMINALS STARTING IN THE 12-14Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AS SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS OCCUR. HOWEVER, IFR CONDITIONS COULD NEED TO BE INTRODUCED
AT THE TERMINALS BETWEEN THE 12Z-18Z SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY
AT CHS/JZI WHERE MODERATE SHOWERS AND/OR LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT THE
TERMINALS AS WELL DURING AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY, WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCE OCCURRING AT THE SAV TERMINAL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ON SATURDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE TO SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON SUNDAY, WITH VFR PREVAILING NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS FLORIDA AND COLD FRONT STALLED OVER NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15-20 KT WILL BE COMMON, STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT. OVERNIGHT, SFC WINDS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SOUTH AS THE REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED IN ADVANCE OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT WILL
STILL REMAIN COMMON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD ABOUT A FOOT BY DAYBREAK,
LARGEST ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
SATURDAY: A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, BRINGING SOME
IMPACTS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT ELEVATED SW WINDS AND SEAS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY, QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NNW
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS OUT FOR THE GA
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. ALSO, EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
NEXT WEEK: SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL EASE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL NORTH OF OUR AREA, BRINGING TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE FULL
MOON (ON SATURDAY). SATURDAY, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE
FOR HIGH TIDAL DEPARTURES, SO THE CHARLESTON HIGH TIDE IS FORECASTED
TO BE BELOW 7 FT MLLW WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, LIGHT
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING STORM SYSTEM COULD BE ONGOING.
SUNDAY, SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING, LIKELY LEADING TO GREATER TIDAL DEPARTURES.
EVEN THOUGH THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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