914
FXUS62 KCHS 030058
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY,
YIELDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
VIRGA CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR BELOW 560 MB, AND VERY
DRY AIR BELOW 750 MB, KEEP PRECIP FROM REACH THE GROUND. LATEST
EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT IT WILL BE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LOW LEVEL MOISTENING OCCURRING, AND A DRY EVENING IS STILL
EXPECTED.
TONIGHT: A SOUTHERN STREAM H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIG ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, HELPING DEVELOP/SHARPEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM, RESULTING IN MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BECOMING WARM-
SECTORED DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT
POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN
MILD AS A RESULT, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
LOWER-MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BUT IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR PRECIP TO ARRIVE WITH MORE FAVORABLE FORCING
ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 50-70% POPS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA STARTING A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH FEW TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA LATE, IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY IN THE MORNING. IT'LL SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY, TRAVERSING OUR AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN SHIFTING
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL, THERE WILL BE A JET STREAK FOLLOWING
THIS SHORTWAVE. AT THE SURFACE, IN THE MORNING A FRONT SHOULD
STRETCH FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EASTWARD, BEING LOCATED JUST WEST
AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE DAY, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
GA, WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT AID IN DEFINING THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH PWATS EASILY EXCEEDING
1", AND VALUES POSSIBLY PEAKING AROUND 1.5" ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER
OF COUNTIES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA AT DAYBREAK,
FOLLOWED BY SOME LETUP LATER IN THE MORNING, BEFORE ANOTHER POSSIBLY
MORE POTENT ROUND MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON,
WITH THE SPC HIGHLIGHTING AREAS SOUTH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. AS IS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT'S A HIGH
SHEAR LOW CAPE EVENT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR COULD BE 40-50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. BUT BOTH SURFACE AND MLCAPES STAY BELOW 1,000 J/KG, WITH
THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AFTER PEAK HEATING. THIS IS
PARTLY BECAUSE THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN TIER MAYBE HITTING THE MID 50S AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES APPROACHING THE
LOWER 70S. SO WHILE STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-16 LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LUCKILY,
THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE 0.5-0.75"
RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL PUT A DENT IN OUR DROUGHT, BUT THE DRY GROUND SHOULD DO A GOOD
JOB AT ABSORBING THE RAINFALL, THUS LIMITING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
ANY RAINFALL AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH IT EXPECTED TO BE DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHERN TIER, TO THE
MID 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MID-LEVEL TROUGHING LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY MORNING WILL SHIFT FURTHER AWAY WHILE RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL BRING OUR AREA DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A
MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. NORTHERLY FLOW AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR PREVAILS INTO THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS
AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK, WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS
FILLING IN FROM THE WEST. CHS/SAV/JZI WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS AN
INITIAL WAVE PASSES NORTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS WE APPROACH LATE MORNING, AS IFR PROBS
BECOME VERY HIGH (70+%) DESPITE THE AREA BEING IN THE WARM
SECTOR IN THE AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, HAVE IFR CIGS PREVAILING
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED DOWNPOURS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD HANG AROUND
INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST LATE EVENING INTO SATURDAY OVERNIGHT. VFR THEN PREVAILS
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
OVERNIGHT, SFC WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTH AS THE REGION
BECOMES WARM-SECTORED IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT WILL STILL REMAIN
COMMON. SEAS SHOULD BUILD ABOUT A FOOT BY DAYBREAK, LARGEST
ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
SATURDAY: A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, BRINGING SOME
IMPACTS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT ELEVATED SW WINDS AND SEAS
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY, QUICKLY VEERING TO THE NNW
BEHIND IT OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS OUT FOR THE GA
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. ALSO, EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS.
NEXT WEEK: SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL EASE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL NORTH OF OUR AREA, BRINGING TRANQUIL
MARINE CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE FULL
MOON (ON SATURDAY). SATURDAY, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE
FOR HIGH TIDAL DEPARTURES, SO THE CHARLESTON HIGH TIDE IS FORECASTED
TO BE BELOW 7 FT MLLW WITH THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, LIGHT
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING STORM SYSTEM COULD BE ONGOING.
SUNDAY, SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING, LIKELY LEADING TO GREATER TIDAL DEPARTURES.
EVEN THOUGH THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED SUNDAY MORNING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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