116
FXUS62 KCHS 031841
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
141 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY, YIELDING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THEREAFTER, WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON: ALOFT, A STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF, HELPING SHARPEN ELONGATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE UNDER A SUBTROPICAL JET, AND EVENTUALLY DRIVING THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE DAY. A WARM
FRONT ALREADY POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS EARLIER TODAY WITH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 0.50 TO 1 INCH RANGE. NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT, TEMPS REMAIN COOLER AND SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING ANTICIPATED,
PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE
RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA.
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, PRECIP ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MORE SPARSE EARLY,
BUT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO
THE VICINITY AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, SETTING UP
FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG AND/OR PERHAPS SEVERE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT,
PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
30-35 KT COINCIDES WITH AN AXIS OF SBCAPE IN THE 250-500 J/KG
RANGE DURING MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S).
HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER AND/OR SHOWERS PRIOR TO AND DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS COULD SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THIS CONCERN. LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY DOES INDICATE A SWATH OF RAIN/SHOWERS CROSSING THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MOST ZONES ALONG WITH GUSTY SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA,
BUT THE WINDOW FOR STRONGER ACTIVITY IS BECOMING SHORT. SHOULD
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO COLD FROPA GIVEN FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS/LOW-LVL SHEAR. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES
TO MARK SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER, SOME SPOTS
AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE, SUCH AS THOSE ALREADY OBSERVED NEAR THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND PERHAPS FOR LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A MINOR FLOOD THREAT FOR URBANIZED AREAS WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM AROUND
STATESBORO, GA TO AROUND BEAUFORT, SC, THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS
LOW GIVEN THE SHORT WINDOW OF TIME FOR PRECIP ACTIVITY.
TONIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING, SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END THIS
EVENING, WHILE DRY AND COLDER AIR BEGINS TO USHER INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH/INLAND
TO LOW-MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
IT'LL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, THEN SHIFT WELL
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL BRING OUR LAND
AREAS DRY CONDITIONS, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, RISING
EVEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OUR
AREA DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY,
ALONG WITH THE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KCHS/KJZI: PREVAILING IFR ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT 14Z SUNDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, POSING ADDITIONAL
VSBYS RESTRICTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 18Z
TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
KSAV: MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TEMPORARILY BETWEEN 18Z-22Z TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY 01Z SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT, POSING ADDITIONAL VSBYS RESTRICTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. IN GENERAL, WIND GUSTS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 15-20 KT,
BUT COULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE LOW-
LVL MIXING IS STRONGER. SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD TO 2-4 FT ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BASED
ON THESE CURRENT AND/OR EXPECTED CONDITIONS, AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST, THEN MORE NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHIFTING FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RELAX LATE
NIGHT, ALLOWING WIND/SEA CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY,
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTERWARDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION FOR GREATER TIDAL DEPARTURES DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR (AT 829 AM). THE FORECAST
NOTES MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A PREDICTED WATER LEVEL OF
7.1 FT MLLW AS OF NOW. THEREFORE, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY MORNING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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