843
FXUS62 KCHS 032341
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
641 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY, YIELDING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN THEREAFTER, WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
TONIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVENING, SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND AWAY
FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME TO AN
END THIS EVENING, WHILE DRY AND COLDER AIR BEGINS TO USHER INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S NORTH/INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY.
IT'LL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW BY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, THEN SHIFT WELL
OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL BRING OUR LAND
AREAS DRY CONDITIONS, WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, RISING
EVEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OUR
AREA DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BIG STORY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY,
ALONG WITH THE MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 0Z TAFS, A WAVY COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, WINDS HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE NNE
WITH IFR CEILINGS AND ROUNDS OF DRIZZLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
MOS INDICATES THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING. HREF INDICATES THAT DRY AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. IN GENERAL, WIND GUSTS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR 15-20 KT,
BUT COULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WHERE LOW-
LVL MIXING IS STRONGER. SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD TO 2-4 FT ACROSS
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-6 FT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BASED
ON THESE CURRENT AND/OR EXPECTED CONDITIONS, AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST, THEN MORE NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHIFTING FURTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY RELAX LATE
NIGHT, ALLOWING WIND/SEA CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY,
THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTERWARDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A FAVORABLE WIND
DIRECTION FOR GREATER TIDAL DEPARTURES DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR (AT 829 AM). THE FORECAST
NOTES MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A PREDICTED WATER LEVEL OF
7.1 FT MLLW AS OF NOW. THEREFORE, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY MORNING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...
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