470
FXUS62 KCHS 040550
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS NORTHWEST
FLOW SHIFTS IN AROUND BROAD RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY
WILL BE TIMING THE EROSION OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. MODEL CLOUD GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRATUS WILL
ERODE FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING, WITH CLEAR SKIES BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S,
BASICALLY RIGHT IN LINE WITH NORMALS FOR EARLY JANUARY.
TONIGHT: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND THE VA TIDEWATER REGION. MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PREVENT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AND LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOW 40S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS ZONAL FLOW TAKES CONTROL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN RATHER QUIET. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT BROAD UPPER-LVL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT DRY AIR TO CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION YIELDING A RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE MIGHT BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND POPS WERE MAINTAINED TO REFLECT THIS. IT'LL BE
QUITE THE WARM-UP ON MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S, WITH LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY!
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A QUIET FORECAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPPER-LVL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, THEREAFTER A COLD FRONT TRIES TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. EXPECT THIS STRONG WARM-UP TO CONTINUE AS TEMPERATURES
REACH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
THERE'S A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME RECORD BREAKING TEMPS.
ON FRIDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
WITH TEMPS. ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S (WITH SOME
UPPER 50S NEAR THE COASTLINE).
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS PRODUCING
IFR CEILINGS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE, THIS IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT AND
SCATTERING FROM THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS IN
THE 06-12Z TIME PERIOD, BUT LOW- LEVELS ARE DRYING OUT AND WE
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THEREFORE, WE HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AT ALL 3 TAF SITES BY
AROUND MIDDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS WILL STRONGEST THIS MORNING WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH AS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 10
KNOTS. SEAS WILL MOSTLY AVERAGE 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD, UP
TO 4 FEET IN THE OUTER GA WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, BEFORE SHIFTING MORE
SOUTH-WESTERLY ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH OF A SWELL
TO TALK ABOUT, SEAS RANGE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FORECAST NOTES POPS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD, THUS
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE (ESP. OVERNIGHT).
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
UPCOMING MORNING HIGH TIDE (~8:30 AM): WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHICH IS PRODUCING INCREASED TIDAL
DEPARTURES AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AT
CHARLESTON HARBOR. LOW TIDE IS COMING UP AROUND 2 AM AND THE
TIDE IS CURRENTLY RUNNING A DEPARTURE OF ABOUT 0.75 FT. THE
MORNING ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS 6.24 FT MLLW, MEANING WE WOULD
NEED 0.76 FT MLLW TO REACH THE MINOR COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD OF
7.0 FT MLLW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEPARTURES WILL RISE
AND THE TIDE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 7.1 FT MLLW. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR COASTAL COLLETON AND
CHARLESTON COUNTIES, BUT WE WILL WAIT UNTIL WE REACH LOW TIDE SO
WE CAN USE OUR LOCAL FORECAST TOOL TO FINALIZE THE FORECAST AND
THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KSAV: 77/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...BSH/DENNIS
MARINE...BSH/DENNIS
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