010
FXUS62 KCHS 042339
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
639 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
TONIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
FORMING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, A 80 - 100 KT
JET STREAK WILL TRANSITION EAST BRINGING WIDESPREAD CIRRUS AND
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE CIRRUS WILL
BE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, DECOUPLING
WILL LIKELY STILL OCCUR WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY. THE
TWO MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST WILL THE CIRRUS ARRIVE AND HOW
THICK WILL IT BE. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WOULD FAVOR THE THICKEST CIRRUS ACROSS GEORGIA AND BORDER
REGIONS WITH SOUTH CAROLINA. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR AREAS. NBM SHOWCASES A 50-60% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY
LESS THAN 5 MILES IN THESE LOCATIONS, WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR
LESS THAN 1 MILE. OPTED TO INCLUDE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST. THE THREAT SHOULD BE LESSER FURTHER EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S WITH
SOME UPPER 30S (ESPECIALLY ACROSS RURAL BERKELEY COUNTY).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF WEST NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD MONDAY
MORNING. IT'LL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ON TUESDAY, AND PREVAIL INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO
TUESDAY. AT THAT TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF, AND PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND HIGH WILL
SERVE AS A BLOCKING FEATURE, WHICH WILL KEEP A PASSING FRONT WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY HINT OF SHOWERS IN THE LAND
FORECAST IS ALONG THE COAST OF CHARLESTON COUNTY MONDAY EVENING, AS
SOME COASTAL SHOWERS TRY TO BRUSH AGAINST THE BEACHES. BUT EVEN THEN
THE POPS ARE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH VERY MINIMAL QPF. THE OVERWHELMING
MAJORITY OF LAND AREAS WILL BE DRY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHS WILL KEEP OUR ENTIRE AREA DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THOUGH, WE CAN EXPECT A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
EACH DAY. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA, EXCEPT AROUND 70 DEGREES SOUTH OF I-16. TEMPERATURES RISE A
FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY, AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY WE'RE
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXCEPT COOLER AT THE
BEACHES. LOWS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO RIDGING OVER
THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY, MAINLY IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PUSH THE
RIDGE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. THEN, THIS VERY STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE EAST COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH OF THESE
DAY. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MAY IMPACT OUR
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BRINGING RAIN AND COLDER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PREVAILING VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF
CYCLE. THERE IS CONCERN THAT A PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
FOG/STRATUS COULD IMPACT KSAV OVERNIGHT TOWARDS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH NBM INDICATING ROUGHLY A 40-50% CHANCE FOR CEILINGS
LESS THAN 3KFT AND 30% FOR LESS THAN 1KFT. OPTED FOR VFR FOR
NOW AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
LATER FRIDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. AT
THAT TIME, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF,
AND PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS SECOND HIGH WILL KEEP A FRONT WELL
NORTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS. THURSDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. EVEN WITH ALL OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN AT LEVELS THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KSAV: 77/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...HAINES
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