610
FXUS62 KCHS 050612
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
112 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, BROAD RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN LEAVING MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE DAY ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TO THE VA TIDEWATER THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFF OF OUR COAST WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE AND GRADUALLY LOSE DEFINITION. THIS SETUP WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED REGIME, WITH
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MORNING TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AND
WEAK INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. EARLY
MORNING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS OFFSHORE, LEAVING
BEHIND AN AREA OF STRATUS LIKELY SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THIS STRATUS WILL MIX AND LIFT THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING, LEAVING SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY, THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE TROUGH. HOWEVER, HI-
RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS THAT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TODAY WILL BEGIN THE RAMP UP IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS TIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.
TONIGHT: DRY AND MOSTLY QUIET CONDITION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MILDER, WITH LOWS
FORECAST TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND RANGING TO THE LOW
50S ALONG THE COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INLAND TIER, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN GREATER COVERAGE THAN THAT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND ALLOW FOR
RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A
BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
TUESDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY! IT'LL
BE COOLER AT THE BEACHES AS THE SST SHOULD KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 60S. FORECAST NOTES IT'LL BE A BIT
BREEZY ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. A RAIN-FREE FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL
KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE QUIET. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN VERY MILD FOR
JANUARY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION STAYING ABOVE 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO NOTE THAT AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
TAKE HOLD OF THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY STILL LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EVEN WITH
THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND THERE'S A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
RECORD BREAKING TEMPS. AT KSAV AND KCHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
ALSO, ALONG WITH THIS UPPER-TROUGH, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL TRY TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THERE'S SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE IT ARRIVES,
AND OTHERS HAVE IT MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE.
HOWEVER, AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, EXPECT A BIT OF A COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KCHS,
KJZI, AND KSAV. OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS SHOW THAT THERE ARE
PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG AROUND, PRODUCING VERY SHORT-LIVED
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE 2-4 MILE RANGE. HOWEVER, MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE THICKENING ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
PREVENT FOG FROM BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. THROUGH SUNRISE, THE
MAIN CONCERN IS ACTUALLY FOR VERY LOW STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
SOUTH GA TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND INTO KSAV CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WE
HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP TO ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY. KCHS
AND KJZI COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF SHALLOW FOG, BUT SHOULD BE
PREVAILING VFR. NO CONCERNS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY.
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS CONCERNS MONDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE BEYOND THE END OF THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATER FRIDAY.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE MORNING WILL FEATURE NORTHEAST WINDS
UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT
WILL THEN STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. OVERNIGHT, THE FLOW WILL
ACTUALLY TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
QUITE LOW AROUND 5 KNOTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD, PERHAPS UP TO 4 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OUTER
GA WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT WINDS TO VEER MORE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM, WINDS BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER
CONDITIONS STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT MUCH
OF A SWELL TO TALK ABOUT, SEAS RANGE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FORECAST NOTES POPS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THUS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE (ESP.
OVERNIGHT).
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KSAV: 77/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...BSH/DENNIS
MARINE...BSH/DENNIS
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