969
FXUS62 KCHS 051746
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1246 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA
THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, WITH BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO SE SC AND SE GA FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THIS EVENING LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS
FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED. ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ON TRACK TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SE SC AND SE GA, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
MAKING A RUN FOR 70. TONIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GO LIGHT TO
CALM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S, NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY
NIGHT. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG
FORMATION, WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH AND LOW
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM AND HREF. HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ALOFT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PERSIST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
WEDNESDAY BUT PROBABLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD, WITH
VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
INLAND. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY GIVEN STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z TAFS PREVAILING VFR. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT, INCREASING TO AROUND 7-9 KNOTS TUESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. SEA FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT ANY POINT THIS
WEEK GIVEN WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING IN OVER RELATIVELY COOL
SHELF WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KSAV: 77/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...CPM/JRL
MARINE...CPM/JRL
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