169
FXUS62 KCHS 052344
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 PM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA
THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA, WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO SE
SC AND SE GA FROM THE NORTH. ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE ALOFT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GO LIGHT
TO CALM AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S, NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY
NIGHT. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERLY SUPPORTIVE OF FOG
FORMATION, WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TOO HIGH AND LOW
PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM AND HREF. HOWEVER, SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ALOFT A PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL PERSIST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
WEDNESDAY BUT PROBABLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE DURING THE PERIOD, WITH
VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
INLAND. NEAR-RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY GIVEN STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A RISK FOR FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE PREVAILING RESTRICTIONS. IF
MORE SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES WERE TO OCCUR, IT
APPEARS KCHS/KJZI WOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
YIELD QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. NE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH WINDS/SEAS REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. SEA FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT ANY POINT THIS
WEEK GIVEN WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING IN OVER RELATIVELY COOL
SHELF WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KSAV: 77/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...ETM/JRL
MARINE...CPM/JRL
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