857
FXUS62 KCHS 060536
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1236 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED WITHIN ZONAL
FLOW SQUEEZED BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN. AT THE
SURFACE, THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASINGLY COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. THE DAY WILL START WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
CONSISTING OF SOME LOW- LEVEL STRATUS AS WELL MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER
MILD DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO MONDAY, REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S.
TONIGHT: MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY FRONT, WE WILL SEE A BIT
OF AN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SUGGESTING THAT FOG AND STRATUS COULD DEVELOP
AND BECOME A CONSIDERATION LATE WITH IN THE WARM AND RELATIVELY
MOIST LOW-LEVELS. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTH GA TO POTENTIALLY ADVECT IN WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. LOW CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT,
BUT WORTH WATCHING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION YIELDING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OUT FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF AND
ALLOW FOR RATHER QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. IT'S IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT A COLD FRONT COULD PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
HOWEVER WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THERE WON'T BE
MUCH OF AN IMPACT EXPECT FOR A MOMENTARY WIND SHIFT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH COOLER TEMPS. NEAR THE
COASTLINE AS SST SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IT'S
VERY POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY AT
KCHS/KCXM/KSAV (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). A RAIN-FREE FORECAST
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE QUIET. OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN VERY MILD FOR JANUARY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION
STAYING ABOVE 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A UPPER-LVL TROUGH SITUATED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DEEPEN AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW THIS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS HAVE BEEN FAVORING A SLOW-MOVING
SOLUTION, WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SEEM TO LIKE A FAST-
MOVING SOLUTION. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER-LVL RIDGING COULD
BE UNDER-FORECASTED, AND THIS WOULD FAVOR THE SLOW-MOVING
SOLUTION .. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST
CYCLES. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL REMAINS TO BE SATURDAY
EVENING (AHEAD OF THE FRONT) WITH 30-40% POPS NOTED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED AS THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL. ALSO, THIS SYSTEM MIGHT YIELD BLUSTERY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. A BIT OF
A COOL DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI,
AND KSAV. THE FIRST 6-8 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD ARE TRICKY,
MAINLY DUE TO THE INSISTENCE FROM MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST IFR
FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE TAF SITES.
UNFORTUNATELY, MUCH OF THIS GUIDANCE ISN'T INITIALIZING WELL
WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE EVOLUTION OF ANY POTENTIAL FOG AND
STRATUS. THE SETUP IS FOR MILD TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, KCLX WIND DATA JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS AT LEAST 10-15 KNOTS OF FLOW
WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY SERVE TO WORK AGAIN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG THROUGH
SUNRISE, BUT WE THINK THE CHANCE OF BONAFIDE LOW VISIBILITIES IN
FOG IS LOW. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR SATELLITE DATA CLOSELY FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS BUT RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THERE ARE NO LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS UNDERWAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE
TAF'S VFR AND WILL MONITOR FOR NECESSARY AMENDMENTS. AFTER
SUNRISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT COULD BRING INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE TAKING ON A BIT MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AGAIN LATE. WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT. BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON SPEEDS SHOULD BE A SOLID 10-15 KNOTS, WITH SOME 20
KNOT GUST POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT COULD GET UP TO 4 FEET
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: IT MIGHT BE A BIT BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
HIGH AND SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, WITH WINDS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LVL TROUGH,
WINDS MIGHT AGAIN BECOME A BIT BREEZY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
HOWEVER CONDITIONS STAY UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. NOT
MUCH OF A SWELL TO TALK ABOUT, SEAS RANGE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KCXM: 76/1974
KSAV: 77/2008
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 60/1974
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...BSH/DENNIS
MARINE...BSH/DENNIS
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