866
FXUS62 KCHS 061801
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
101 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA
THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER FLORIDA DOMINATES THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
TRAVERSE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES. W TO SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON COULD GUST 15 TO 20 MPH, DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY,
GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70 IN A FEW SPOTS IN SE
GA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, REMAINING AROUND 5MPH. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE
IS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FORMATION OF FOG/LOW STRATUS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY IN SE GA. FOG HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT ON TUESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE PATCHY FOG TO BE DENSE AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE RATHER MILD AGAIN, ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TOWARD AN EAST COAST RIDGE TOWARD LATE WEEK WHILE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. HIGH TEMPS ALL THREE DAYS WILL
BE IN THE 70S, THOUGH FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK THE WARMEST AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE SOUTHERLY WARM ADVECTION
REGIME STRENGTHENS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
OFF THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING
SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS. A COOLDOWN IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 18Z TAFS ARE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG/LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LINGERING INTO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS WILL BE
AT KSAV, WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE INCLUDED FROM 07 TO 15Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR EVEN LIFR, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE 18Z TAFS. WHILE THERE ARE
NO RESTRICTIONS INCLUDED AT KCHS/KJZI THERE IS A CHANCE AT SOME
TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS/REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. VFR WILL PREVAIL AFTER AROUND 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: NIGHTTIME CEILING RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KSAV WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.
MARINE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT: A TIGHTENING
SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS, YIELDING INCREASED
WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS
COULD SEE A GUST OR TWO TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT COULD GET UP TO 4 FEET
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WITH
FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND WATER TEMPS IN THE MID
50S, CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT IF LAND-BASED FOG MOVES OFFSHORE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 7:
KSAV: 79/1991
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KCXM: 76/1974
KSAV: 77/2008
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 79/2008
KSAV: 81/1972
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 60/1974
KCXM: 62/1974
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...CPM/JRL
MARINE...CPM/JRL
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