537
FXUS62 KCHS 071748
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1248 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, CAUSING RAIN CHANCES AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STUBBORN STRATUS DECK HAS LINGERED THIS MORNING, WITH SUNSHINE
STRUGGLING TO BREAK THROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES NOT WARMING QUITE AS QUICKLY
AS ANTICIPATED. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S AND ONCE THE SUNSHINE DOES BREAK THROUGH HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO BROAD RIDGING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
OVERALL THE IMPACTS FROM THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
MINIMAL, WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, THE
CHANCE OF FOG FORMATION TONIGHT HAS INCREASED. ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES FROM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THE PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS,
MODELS SHOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSIST THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEST RIDGING
BUILDING OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SFC, EXPECT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO LINGER, WITH A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL, DESPITE THERE BEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REACHING
THE LOWER 80S. MORE ON RECORD HIGH POSSIBILITIES IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. DO WANT TO POINT OUT, HOWEVER, THAT TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE A BIT COOLER, AS HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS, ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
CAUSING RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST - MORE ON THIS BELOW.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY WARM (PERHAPS
RECORD BREAKING) TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS NOTED ABOVE, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF FROPA, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (30-50%) OCCURRING AFTER
SUNSET. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. RATHER, EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO BE THE MORE
NOTABLE IMPACT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE A NOTABLE DIVE, AS A COOLER,
DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN
THE 60S SUNDAY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK, THOUGH
STILL STAYING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A LINGERING LOW STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD,
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z, AND REMAIN VFR AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. TONIGHT THE CHANCE OF LOW
STRATUS/FOG RETURNS, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
18Z TAFS AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV BEGINNING AROUND 09Z AND LASTING
THROUGH AROUND 15Z. IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: WEST- SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, 5-10 KNOTS EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING 5 KNOTS
OR LESS LATE. THESE LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND A DIRECTION PARALLEL
TO THE COASTLINE, SEA FOG COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME AN ISSUE
TONIGHT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ITS FORMATION, AS WELL AS LOCAL
TOOLS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
2-3 FEET TODAY, DROPPING OFF TO 2 FEET OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WHILE
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, DO WANT TO NOTE THAT SEA
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME A BIT BREEZY SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS BECOME EVEN BREEZIER BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. SEAS BETWEEN 4
TO 6 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THUS, A FEW SCA'S
MAY BE NEEDED - ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS, AND NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KCXM: 76/1974
KSAV: 77/2008
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 79/2008
KSAV: 81/1972
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 60/1974
KCXM: 62/1974
KSAV: 63/1937
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...CPM/SST
MARINE...CPM/SST
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