347
FXUS62 KCHS 080329
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, CAUSING RAIN CHANCES AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT: ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING, THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO BROAD RIDGING LATE NIGHT. AFT THE SFC, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT. OVERALL THE IMPACTS FROM THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH NO RAIN CHANCES, BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION WITH IT LATE. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND/OR
GO CALM THIS EVENING, SETTING UP THE STAGE FOR FOG FORMATION AS SFC
TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOW-MID 50S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WIND WEAKENING AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE LATEST 00Z HREF INCLUDES A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF DENSE FOG (80+ PROBABILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITY) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LATEST OBS AND WEBCAMS ARE ALREADY INDICATING VISIBILITIES
UNDER 1/2 SM IN SOME SPOTS, AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS CIRRUS THINS/DEPARTS ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT
ALONG WITH LOW-LVL FLOW WEAKENING COULD SUPPORT SOME ELEMENT OF
STRATUS BUILD DOWN LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE SETUP AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PERSIST THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEST RIDGING
BUILDING OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SFC, EXPECT SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO LINGER, WITH A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL, DESPITE THERE BEING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA REACHING
THE LOWER 80S. MORE ON RECORD HIGH POSSIBILITIES IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. DO WANT TO POINT OUT, HOWEVER, THAT TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE A BIT COOLER, AS HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SATURDAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS, ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
CAUSING RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST - MORE ON THIS BELOW.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY WARM (PERHAPS
RECORD BREAKING) TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS NOTED ABOVE, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD
OF FROPA, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (30-50%) OCCURRING AFTER
SUNSET. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. RATHER, EXPECT BREEZY WINDS TO BE THE MORE
NOTABLE IMPACT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TAKE A NOTABLE DIVE, AS A COOLER,
DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN
THE 60S SUNDAY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK, THOUGH
STILL STAYING BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THIS
EVENING, BEFORE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARRIVE AT CHS/JZI AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AND AT SAV AROUND 08Z THURSDAY OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS IFR CIGS ARRIVING AT THE TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT, WITH
TEMPO GROUPS NOW DISPLAYING THESE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08-12Z
THURSDAY. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT
WITH VSBYS AROUND 1SM OR LESS PRIOR TO AND AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG CIRRUS CLOUDS REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BUT VSBY REDUCTIONS APPEAR THE
GREATEST NEAR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE, ESPECIALLY AT
CHS/JZI TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN AT ALL
TERMINALS BY THE 15-16Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, THEN PERSIST THROUGH
00Z FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING
INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
MARINE
TONIGHT: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN 5 KT OR LESS LATE. THESE LIGHT WIND
SPEEDS AND A WIND DIRECTION MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BEACHES WHERE LAND-BASED FOG HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DRIFT
OFFSHORE. MODELS ARE HINTING AT ITS FORMATION, AS WELL AS LOCAL
TOOLS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 2 FT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. WHILE
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, DO WANT TO NOTE THAT SEA
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BECOME A BIT BREEZY SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS BECOME EVEN BREEZIER BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. SEAS BETWEEN 4
TO 6 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THUS, A FEW SCA'S
MAY BE NEEDED - ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS, AND NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KCXM: 76/1974
KSAV: 77/2008
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 79/2008
KSAV: 81/1972
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 60/1974
KCXM: 62/1974
KSAV: 63/1937
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...DPB/SST
MARINE...DPB/SST
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