847
FXUS62 KCHS 080849
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
349 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, CAUSING RAIN CHANCES AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING: DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM.
TODAY: ALOFT, THE AXIS OF BROAD RIDGING WILL TRACK TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING FROM A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR THE YUCATAN. AT THE SURFACE, THE DAY WILL START WITH START
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA AND A BACKDOOR
FRONT THAT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY AS A WARM
FRONT FEATURE, AS WELL AS A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE. THE DAY WILL START WITH WIDESPREAD FOG (LIKELY DENSE)
AND VERY LOW STRATUS WHICH WILL WORK TO REINFORCE THE SUBTLE CAD
REGIME ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR FRONT.
WITH THIS IN PLACE, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WARM FRONT TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND SCOUR OUT THE ENTRENCHED FOG AND
STRATUS LAYER. THIS SHOULD WORK TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SURFACE
HEATING AND WE WILL NEED TO ADDRESS THE DIURNAL TREND OF HOURLY
TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER, ONCE THE SUN PEAKS THROUGH WE
SHOULD WARM UP VERY QUICKLY AND STILL SEE HIGHS PEAK IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS OFFSHORE WITHIN THE COASTAL TROUGH, BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN WELL DISPLACED FROM LAND.
TONIGHT: GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL CONSIST OF MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, CONDITIONS
SHOULD AGAIN FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW WE HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF
FOG TO THE FORECAST, BUT IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD
WORDING EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ALSO
LOOKS RELATIVELY HIGH, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. IT WILL BE YET ANOTHER VERY MILD NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRIDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LVL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL GLIDE INTO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A WARM FRONT PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE MORNING WILL YIELD WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE LOW
80S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA! IT'S VERY POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON FRIDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COASTLINE WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE
RECENT SSTS WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
A RAIN-FREE FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AS SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING HIGH WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE QUIET.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN VERY MILD FOR JANUARY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER TO LOW 60S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: AS THIS STRENGTHENING UPPER-LVL TROUGH
CONTINUES PROGRESS TOWARDS THE REGION, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO TAG ALONG WITH IT. THIS WILL YIELD RATHER
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE PATTERN SHIFT. IT'LL ALSO BE
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON SATURDAY AS TEMPS. REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S. IT'S POSSIBLE TO SEE RECORD BREAKING TEMPS. YET
AGAIN (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINS TO BE ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WITH 40-60% POPS NOTED, BEFORE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTLINE ON SUNDAY
MORNING. IT SEEMS THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAVE FINALLY COME TO AN AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
LIKELY PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
AFTERWARDS, A COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP IN
TEMPS. AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY (MAYBE BREEZIER THAN SATURDAY) AS STRONG CAA
WILL BE PRESENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. TOO EARLY TO CALL,
BUT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED AS GUSTS ACROSS LAKE
MOULTRIE REACH INTO 24-25 KTS ON SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS THIS COOLER, DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S WITH CLEAR
SKIES. THEREAFTER, TEMPS. WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH FOG AND STRATUS ALREADY STARTING
TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH, THAT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA ACROSS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY GET DOWN TO HALF A MILE, AND EVEN A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS, FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES.
IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING FOR THE FOG TO IMPROVE
AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT
AND VFR TO RETURN. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE
SHORTLIVED AS CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG AND
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AND DENSE IS LIKELY, WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON SAT.
EVENING INTO SAT. NIGHT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION.
MARINE
EARLY MORNING UPDATE: COASTAL WEB CAMS, SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A
REPORT FROM THE CHARLESTON BRANCH PILOTS ASSOCIATION DISPATCH,
DENSE FOG IS EXPANDING OUT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CHARLESTON HARBOR. DENSE FOG MIGHT NOT BE ONGOING IN THE GA
NEARSHORE WATERS RIGHT NOW, BUT SHOULD EXPAND THERE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. WE WILL RUN THE ADVISORY THROUGH 11 AM, THOUGH IT
IS POSSIBLE DENSE FOG COULD LINGER LONGER AND THE ADVISORY COULD
NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY 5-10 KNOTS.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE EASTERLY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW STARTING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE. SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, NO MORE THAN 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR THE FORECAST IS THAT WIDESPREAD FOG
AND LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS LAND AREAS THIS
MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS FOG TO BLEED INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PRODUCE FOG AND STRATUS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH SO
WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. ALSO, A MORE TRUE FORM OF SEA
FOG COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LVL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT, EXPECT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO RANGE 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22-23 KTS ON SATURDAY, AND THEN VEER
WESTERLY ON SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP PACE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-27 KTS. SEAS RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, BEFORE A SWELL SURGES INTO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY
AND SEAS BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO TAPER BACK
ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS OFF FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR ALL MARINES ZONES (EXCEPT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR) ON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 78/2012
KCXM: 76/1974
KSAV: 77/2008
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 79/2008
KSAV: 81/1972
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JANUARY 9:
KCHS: 58/1946
JANUARY 10:
KCHS: 60/1974
KCXM: 62/1974
KSAV: 63/1937
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-350-
352-354.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...BSH/DENNIS
MARINE...BSH/DENNIS
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