295
FXUS62 KCHS 162336
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
REMOVED KEY MESSAGE REGARDING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER 20S ALONG
THE COAST) POSSIBLE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC.
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE AND SPARK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC--A CLASSIC MILLER-A SCENARIO. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS
INTO THE REGION. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) COMMENCES POST
FROPA SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STEADILY COOL
WITH TIME WITH THERMAL PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR RAIN MIXING WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AS
PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN
MILLER-A CYCLOGENESIS REGIMES, THE COLDER/DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY
BE CHASING THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION AREA WHICH ONLY OPEN UP
A BRIEF WINDOW (SEVERAL HOURS) FOR POSSIBLE P-TYPE ISSUES SUNDAY
MORNING, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AT 12-15Z SUNDAY SUGGEST INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL FAVOR THE BEST OVERLAP OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WITH THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW WITH SOUNDINGS AT KAQX,
KMHP AND KRVJ ALL SHOWING CLOUD TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST -20C
(SUFFICIENT FOR ICE NUCLEATION) WITH SUB-FREEZING PROFILES ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER TO THE
EAST OF THIS CORRIDOR, HOWEVER, THERMAL PROFILES BECOME
INCREASINGLY LESS FAVORABLE WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR ICE
NUCLEATION IN THE CLOUD (DRIER/WARMER CLOUD TEMPERATURES) WITH A
DEEPER SURFACE-BASED MELTING LAYER.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME FAVORS RAIN SPREADING TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UP INTO
ALLENDALE COUNTY, SC AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY ENDING
AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE
MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX COULD REACH
AS FAR EAST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH ALL RAIN FAVORED ALONG THE
COAST. GROUND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. ONE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION, WHICH MUST BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED, IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR BANDS WHICH MAY SUPPORT CORRIDORS OF
HEAVIER SNOWFALL WHERE THERMAL PROFILES AND UVV PROFILES BECOME
LOCALLY AUGMENTED. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF
BANDS OF INTENSE 850-700 HPA FRONTOGENESIS WITH POCKETS OF
NEGATIVE EPV WHICH CAN FAVOR THE GENESIS OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
OR BANDS. ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
RATHER WARM, LOCALIZED, HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY
SUPPORT A QUICK DUSTING TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 0.5" BEFORE A
QUICK MELTING OCCURS SHOULD THESE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES FORM.
NBM SNOW PROBABILITIES FOR 1" ARE RUNNING HIGH AS 20-30% ACROSS
PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA (CLOSER TO THE 16/00Z EC
ENSEMBLE FOOTPRINT) AND MAY VERY WELL BE PICKING UP ON THIS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE THIS LOOKS SCENARIO LOOKS UNLIKELY
RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE OVERALL SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES, IT IS A
REASONABLE WORSE CASE SCENARIO AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR
PLANNING PURPOSES.
AS FOR IMPACTS, WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM STILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC WINTER
STORM SEVERITY INDEX (WSSI-P) CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 15-25%
CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS, SO AGAIN, FOLKS SHOULD STILL EXERCISE
EXTRA CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY AS A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD
OCCUR. AGAIN, SHOULD THOSE CORRIDORS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
DEVELOP, THEN SOME HIGHER LEVEL IMPACTS MAY EVOLVE, MOSTLY FOR
TRAVEL. A LOW-END RISK FOR SOME PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT LINGERING WINDS AND LOWERING DEWPOINT SHOULD
HELP DRY ROADS OUT PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER
20S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH A MUCH STRONGER HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY
AND BECOME THE DOMINANT HIGH. IT SHOULD MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO OUR REGION.
LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS,
EXCEPT THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND NEAR
FREEZING AT THE BEACHES. LIGHT WINDS EACH NIGHT COULD DROP WIND
CHILLS A FEW DEGREES FURTHER. IF TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS DROP
TO 20 DEGREES OR COLDER, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WOULD BE
NEEDED. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS OF THIS OCCURRING ARE ACROSS
OUR INTERIOR GA COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 18/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS IS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL THREE TERMINALS.
MARINE
THERE ARE NO CONCERNS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S./MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WINDS MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE THE PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS
25 KT OR HIGHER ARE THE GREATEST.
THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY, WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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