025
FXUS62 KCHS 181714
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1214 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TIMING AND AMOUNTS WERE UPDATED BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RISK FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RISK FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS.
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT (CC) AND REFLECTIVITY DATA (Z) FROM
BOTH KCLX AND KJGX SUGGEST THE FREEZING LEVEL CONTINUES TO
STEADILY LOWER AS COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE IN PLACE AND ARE BEGINNING TO MIX WITH AND
EVEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. THE RAIN
RECENTLY CHANGED OVER THE SNOW AROUND MILLEN, GA. AREAS WEST
AND NORTH OF A METTER TO SYLVANIA LINE MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
(1-3 HOURS) OF MODERATE SNOW AS THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST
FORCING ALOFT WITH THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THERE HAVE EVEN BEEN OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
BANDS THAT HAVE SET UP AT TIMES INDICATIVE OF THE ALIGNMENT OF
STRONG 850-500 FRONTOGENESIS WITH POCKETS OF NEGATIVE EPV. ONE
OF THESE BANDS CROSSED OVER DUBLIN, GA, EARLIER THIS MORNING
WHICH YIELDED A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW WITH VSBYS <1/4 MILE. THIS
POSSIBILITY HAD BEEN DISCUSSED ABOUT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM, WEBCAMS TO THE WEST
OVER EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA SUGGEST RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS ROOF TOPS. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.4"
WERE MAINTAINED, WHICH IS JUST SHY OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED, BUT
ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS COULD OCCUR ON ELEVATED BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. ELSEWHERE, WHILE A FEW SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN AS
FAR EAST AS I-95 BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS, PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
ALL LIQUID.
THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST-EAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE PULLS AWAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND EXITING SHORTWAVE ALOFT,
COOLER AIR IS USHERED IN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION (CAA) FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
GULF, COMBINED WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, WILL BRING
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S FOR INLAND AREAS RISING UP
TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW 20 DEG F HAVE BECOME FAIRLY LOW (<10% FOR MAJORITY
OF THE AREA), THOUGH A SMALL FOOTPRINT OF 30% PROBABILITIES
REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK OVERALL, AND DON'T LOOK TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS BELOW 20 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND UP TOWARDS THE MID 20S ELSEWHERE. LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 20 DEG F REMAIN NEAR
40% RANGE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WHILE THE HIGH RES HREF AND REFS BOTH KEEP CHANCES
BELOW 10%. GIVEN THE LACK OF CLEAR SIGNAL AND THE GENERAL TREND
FOR WINDS TO REMAIN WEAK, HAVE OPTED TO FORGO A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT, HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS, WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST, WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND CHILLS AT
OR BELOW 20 DEGREES F ARE HIGHEST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR, THOUGH THEY HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST
LREF AND HREF DATA RANGING FROM 30 TO 40%, WHILE THE REFS HAS
PROBABILITIES < 10%. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH THE AREA TO WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. OUR FINAL COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM THIS EVENT WILL
OCCUR AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WE COULD SEE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (20 DEGREES F OR LOWER) ACROSS INLAND
AREAS FROM EITHER TEMPERATURES ALONE IF THERE IS NO WIND (20-40%
CHANCE), OR FROM WIND CHILLS IF WINDS ARE A TOUCH STRONGER
(30-40% CHANCE).
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AND LOWS, THOUGH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN FOR
INLAND AREAS FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
18/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS RAIN ENDS AND MUCH DRIER/COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH 19/18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS, STRONGEST
FROM 15NM OUT TO 60NM. 6 FOOT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED
CLOSE TO THE 60NM BOUNDARY, DECREASING TO 3 FOOT WAVES ALONG THE
COAST. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AND MAY DIP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING, A RESURGENCE IN
WINDS SPEEDS ABOVE CRITERIA IS NOTED ON HIGH RES GUIDANCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES ONTO THE WATERS. HAVE THUS EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME
FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 9Z. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW CRITERIA, BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THIS EVENING. RAIN EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE MARINE CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY, WITH
GUSTS UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS ON WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY AS SWELL MOVES IN FROM THE ATLANTIC, THOUGH WAVE
HEIGHTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 6 FT.
CLIMATE
SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR JANUARY 18:
KCHS: 0.4/1977
KSAV: 1.0/1893
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-
352-354-374.
ST/APT
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