266
FXUS62 KCHS 182352
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
652 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND SKIES ARE NOW CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE THE KEY MESSAGE REGARDING MIXED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAS BEEN REMOVED. THERE IS A THREAT OF
PATCHY BLACK ICE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
MAINLY IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES HAVE
GONE CLEAR, WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S
FAR INLAND. THESE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS
THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE
LOWER DEW POINTS, WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TONIGHT,
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MOST OF
THE LINGERING PUDDLES FROM THE RAIN TODAY TO EVAPORATE, HOWEVER
SOME SPOTS IN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE PATCHY BLACK
ICE FORM AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN MONDAY MORNING ON
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS THAT APPEAR WET, AS IT IS LIKELY ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND EXITING SHORTWAVE ALOFT,
COOLER AIR IS USHERED IN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION (CAA) FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
GULF, COMBINED WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, WILL BRING
OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 20S FOR INLAND AREAS RISING UP
TO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST. PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES
AT OR BELOW 20 DEG F HAVE BECOME FAIRLY LOW (<10% FOR MAJORITY
OF THE AREA), THOUGH A SMALL FOOTPRINT OF 30% PROBABILITIES
REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK OVERALL, AND DON'T LOOK TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
WIND CHILLS BELOW 20 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND UP TOWARDS THE MID 20S ELSEWHERE. LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW 20 DEG F REMAIN NEAR
40% RANGE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WHILE THE HIGH RES HREF AND REFS BOTH KEEP CHANCES
BELOW 10%. GIVEN THE LACK OF CLEAR SIGNAL AND THE GENERAL TREND
FOR WINDS TO REMAIN WEAK, HAVE OPTED TO FORGO A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT, HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS, WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST, WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND CHILLS AT
OR BELOW 20 DEGREES F ARE HIGHEST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR, THOUGH THEY HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST
LREF AND HREF DATA RANGING FROM 30 TO 40%, WHILE THE REFS HAS
PROBABILITIES < 10%. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH THE AREA TO WATCH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. OUR FINAL COLD OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM THIS EVENT WILL
OCCUR AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. WE COULD SEE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (20 DEGREES F OR LOWER) ACROSS INLAND
AREAS FROM EITHER TEMPERATURES ALONE IF THERE IS NO WIND (20-40%
CHANCE), OR FROM WIND CHILLS IF WINDS ARE A TOUCH STRONGER
(30-40% CHANCE).
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
HIGHS AND LOWS, THOUGH NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN FOR
INLAND AREAS FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD FOR
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. SCATTERED SKIES WILL GO CLEAR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT,
REMAINING SKC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS, STRONGEST
FROM 15NM OUT TO 60NM. 6 FOOT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN CONFINED
CLOSE TO THE 60NM BOUNDARY, DECREASING TO 3 FOOT WAVES ALONG THE
COAST. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AND MAY DIP BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING, A RESURGENCE IN
WINDS SPEEDS ABOVE CRITERIA IS NOTED ON HIGH RES GUIDANCE DURING
THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A PUSH OF COLD AIR
MOVES ONTO THE WATERS. HAVE THUS EXTENDED THE EXPIRATION TIME
FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 9Z. THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST BELOW CRITERIA, BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
THIS EVENING. RAIN EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH
WINDS SUBSIDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY TO THURSDAY: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE MARINE CONCERNS IN THE
EXTENDED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY ON TUESDAY, WITH
GUSTS UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WAVE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS ON WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY AS SWELL MOVES IN FROM THE ATLANTIC, THOUGH WAVE
HEIGHTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 6 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354-
374.
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