668
FXUS62 KCHS 190904
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED MARINE SECTION TO EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER A
PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS. PATCHY BLACK ICE REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS THIS MORNING.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS, SETTING UP COLDER CONDITIONS WITH
SFC TEMPS THAT FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. ALTHOUGH A LIGHT WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND WILL HELP DRY OUT LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT, SOME
ROADWAYS REMAIN WET, POSING A BLACK ICE ISSUE DURING THE NIGHT AND
INTO A FEW HOURS POST DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS PATCHY BLACK ICE
ON PAVED SURFACES, SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY ROADS, PARKING LOTS, SIDEWALKS AND DRIVEWAYS.
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SAW RAINFALL END EARLIER AND HAVE
EXPERIENCED SUFFICIENT DRYING TO LIMIT BLACK ICE CONCERNS. WINDS ARE
ALSO BECOMING LIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT, LIMITING WIND CHILL TEMPS TO THE
LOWER 20S, JUST ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND BUDDING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. WITH WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK, EXPECT DROPPING
WINDS CHILLS TO PRIMARILY BE A FACTOR OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. NONETHELESS, LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAVE TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER, RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 20
DEGF, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY EITHER DAY. IN ANY EVENT,
STILL WANT TO ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS FOR
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS CAN INCLUDE DRESSING IN WARM LAYERS,
LIMITING TIME OUTSIDE, AND INSULATING/EXPOSING PIPES TO HEATED AIR.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEEK
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
EARLY MORNING: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS DUE TO WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT.
REMAINING WATERS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WANES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT, GENERALLY TO 1-3 FT
NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST, LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL, WEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KT TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT ACROSS
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. MONDAY TO THURSDAY: NO HIGH CONFIDENCE
MARINE CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME
BREEZY ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP INTO THE UPPER TEENS THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WAVE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS ON
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS SWELL MOVES IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC, THOUGH WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 6 FT.
TUESDAY ONWARD: NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME A TAD BREEZY ON
TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WAVE
HEIGHTS THEN BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS ON WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY AS SWELLS MOVES IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. NONETHELESS, WITH
SEAS STILL LESS THAN 6 FT, NOT EXPECTING ANY SCAS AT THIS TIME.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
374.
DPB/SST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page