921
FXUS62 KCHS 191157
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. PATCHY
BLACK ICE REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS THIS MORNING.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY BLACK ICE IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS THIS MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION, SETTING UP
COLDER CONDITIONS WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW THE FREEZING MARK EARLY
THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH A LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WILL HELP
DRY OUT LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT, SOME ROADWAYS COULD REMAIN
PARTIALLY WET, POSING A BLACK ICE ISSUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
UNTIL 9 AM TO ADDRESS REMAINING PATCHY BLACK ICE CONCERNS ON
PAVED SURFACES, SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, PRIMARY AND
SECONDARY ROADS, PARKING LOTS, SIDEWALKS AND DRIVEWAYS.
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SAW RAINFALL END EARLIER AND HAVE
EXPERIENCED SUFFICIENT DRYING TO LIMIT BLACK ICE CONCERNS. WINDS ARE
ALSO LIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST, LIMITING WIND CHILL TEMPS TO THE LOWER 20S, JUST
ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND BUDDING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE. WITH WINDS REMAINING RELATIVELY WEAK, EXPECT DROPPING
WINDS CHILLS TO PRIMARILY BE A FACTOR OF EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. NONETHELESS, LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HAVE TRENDED A TOUCH WARMER, RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 20
DEGF, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY EITHER DAY. IN ANY EVENT,
STILL WANT TO ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS FOR
THESE COLD TEMPERATURES. THIS CAN INCLUDE DRESSING IN WARM LAYERS,
LIMITING TIME OUTSIDE, AND INSULATING/EXPOSING PIPES TO HEATED AIR.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEEK
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT AND PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS. IN GENERAL, WEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT TODAY WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY WEAKEN TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT ACROSS
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
TUESDAY ONWARD: NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY BECOME A TAD BREEZY ON
TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING. WAVE
HEIGHTS THEN BEGIN TO TREND UPWARDS ON WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY AS SWELLS MOVES IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. NONETHELESS, WITH
SEAS STILL LESS THAN 6 FT, NOT EXPECTING ANY SCAS AT THIS TIME.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DPB/SST
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