407
FXUS62 KCHS 192325
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
625 PM EST MON JAN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- 2) WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S (UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST) POSSIBLE TUESDAY, AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY,
THEN PASS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. TONIGHT,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL BE
RATHER LIGHT, PERHAPS GOING CALM. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY
LITTLE, IF ANY, WIND CHILL. EXPECT SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (THE MID TO UPPER 30S). WINDS
WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT TO CALM, YIELDING LITTLE TO NO WIND CHILL.
SO COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED EITHER NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
TUESDAY, TRENDING WARMER ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT TO IMPACT THE REGION.
ALOFT, DEEP ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE 150+ KT
UPPER LEVEL JET. AT THE SURFACE, COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AN
EXPANDING SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE OVERALL RESULT IS
WHAT LOOKS TO BE A COLD AND WET WEEKEND, WITH THE FORECAST
ADVERTISING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MOST IMPACTFUL IS THAT THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR A WINTER WEATHER
EVENT TO AFFECT MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF SOUTHEAST GA AND SOUTHEAST SC
THIS WEEKEND. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN,
THERE IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING (POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
20S IN SOME AREAS) ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
PRESENCE OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SUCH A SETUP WOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT, WHICH COULD BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CRITICAL DETAILS WORK OUT. THERE IS INCREASING
SUPPORT FOR WINTER WEATHER AMONG BOTH ENSEMBLES, DETERMINISTIC MODEL
RUNS, AS WELL AS IN PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
NAIL DOWN SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION TYPES AND ANY POTENTIAL
TRANSITIONS, MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO SUGGEST PRIMARILY A FREEZING
RAIN THREAT WITH A SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER AT THE SURFACE AND A
PROMINENT WARM NOSE CENTERED AROUND 800-850 MB. AS SUCH, THE
FORECAST GRIDS WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT WHILE THE CHANCE OF A POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS INCREASING, THERE REMAINS
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS INCLUDING TIMING,
IMPACTED AREAS, PRECIPITATION TYPES, AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ALL
OF SOUTHEAST GA AND SOUTHEAST SC SHOULD BEGIN TO PREPARE TO
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00Z TAFS: VFR. SW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW TUESDAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION,
WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: OVERALL, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON TUESDAY WITH UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST FLOW
POSSIBLE. THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. HOWEVER,
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INLAND AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SETUP COULD PRODUCE AN ENHANCED
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH AN INCREASINGLY LIKELIHOOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL ZONES BY SATURDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/CPM
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