094
FXUS62 KCHS 232321
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
621 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 14/00Z TAFS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SE GA.
- 2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SE GA.
THE PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER BEGINS LATE SATURDAY AS THE CENTER OF A
ARCTIC AIR MASS REACHES NEW ENGLAND. THIS DRY AND COLD AIR MASS
SHOULD RIDGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S LATE SATURDAY, WITH
COLD AIR DAMMING STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE APPROACH
OF A BROAD H5 TROUGH AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 190 KT
JET OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND, A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OFF THE GA/SC COAST. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS, DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEDGED HIGH PRESSURE, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND WET-BULB EFFECTS SHOULD
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S ACROSS INLAND SC
LOWCOUNTRY INTO SE GA. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, SFC TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FROM BERKELEY COUNTY WEST TO
JENKINS COUNTY. PRECIPITATION MAY TRANSITION FROM A COLD RAIN, TO A
MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN, THEN AS FREEZING RAIN. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS NORTHERN DORCHESTER, ALLENDALE, AND
BERKELEY COUNTIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SURGES SUB-FREEZING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND DEEP INTO SE
GA. IF THIS OCCURS, IT APPEARS THAT BRIEF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD OCCUR CLOSER TO THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SLICK SURFACE EITHER BY FREEZING PRECIP OR FREEZING SURFACE
MOISTURE FROM EARLIER RAINFALL.
ON SUNDAY, THE COASTAL LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST. SFC WINDS MAY TURN FROM THE NORTH, STRENGTHENING
THE COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WERE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY, LIMITING VALUES TO
THE LOW 50S ACROSS THE INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES, ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S OR LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE. THE WARMING
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD END FREEZING RAINFALL BY MID-DAY. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A TIER OF COUNTIES FROM
JENKINS COUNTY EAST TO BERKELEY COUNTIES FROM 7 PM SATURDAY UNTIL 1
PM SUNDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY EVENING, RESULTING IN THE
ENTIRE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. A SOLID RAIN BAND WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT, WITH AREAL AVERAGE QPF AT LEAST 0.5". THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
OFF THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND THERMAL PROFILES ONLY SUPPORT RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE.
ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF GUIDANCE, MIN TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE TEENS WEST OF I-95 WITH LOW TO MID 20S
ALONG THE COAST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION, POSSIBLY AROUND 10 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES
AND WIND MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS. IN
FACT, MIN WIND CHILLS COULD RANGE AROUND 10 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF INLAND GA TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SHOULD BE COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
LIGHTER, FAVORING VALUES AROUND 5 MPH. MIN WIND CHILL VALUES MAY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
24/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO DECREASING
CEILINGS AND INCREASING WIND OVERNIGHT AS THE WEDGE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH AND COLD AIR DAMMING BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS SHOULD REACH KCHS AND KJZI AROUND DAYBREAK
AND KSAV BY MID-MORNING. WHILE IFR CIGS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, THE RISK FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE AFTER 21Z,
ESPECIALLY AT KCHS AND KJZI. GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
20 KT ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: PERIODS OF MVFR AND/OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THIS WEEKEND AS A STORM
SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE REGION ON SATURDAY, YIELDING LOW CIGS/VSBYS SAT. NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THERE IS A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY AT THE CHS/JZI
TERMINALS, BUT HIGHEST CHANCE REMAINS INLAND. EXPECT A COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND YIELD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHEAST WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AS
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE REGION AND COLD AIR DAMMING BEGINS
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF INLAND. SPEEDS SHOULD REACH 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GEORGIA WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT. ALSO, GIVEN THE EXPECTED
PINCHED GRADIENT SITUATION, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR SATURDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO PARTS OF SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) COMBINED
WITH AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN NEAR
A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE WITH SEAS UPWARDS OF 7 TO 10 FT. IT'S IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT SOME ELEMENT OF WEDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MIGHT BE EVENTUALLY NEEDED AT
SOME POINT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS WELL ON SAT./SAT.
NIGHT. THESE HIGH SEAS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MOST WATERS INTO
MONDAY, WHILE ANOTHER BURST OF CAA TAKES PLACE GIVEN POST-FROPA
CONDITIONS.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE. CRITICAL PARTS ARE
ON ORDER AND REPAIRS ARE SCHEDULED TO OCCUR SATURDAY MORNING
ONCE THE PARTS ARRIVE. USERS SHOULD USE ADJACENT WSR-88D SITES,
INCLUDING KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX AND KJGX.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR GAZ087-088.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ374.
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