065
FXUS62 KCHS 250620
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
120 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE
TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY AND CHARLESTON COUNTY. FREEZING DRIZZLE
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
IN SE SC. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR COUNTIES OF SE SC AND SE GA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- 2) ARCTIC AIR WILL YIELD VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR COUNTIES OF SE SC AND SE GA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
ANALYZING BOTH RADAR IMAGERY FROM KJAX AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE SE GA COAST AS OF
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG COLD AIR
DAMMING (CAD) SET UP EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS A
STRONG (1042 MB) HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS SE SC. THE COVERAGE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS DIABATIC PROCESSES FROM THE PRECIPITATION
COOL THE AIR FURTHER TO THE WET BULB. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE TIDAL BERKELEY AND
CHARLESTON COUNTIES AS FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD YIELD A TRACE OF
ICE ACROSS AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. ROADS,
ESPECIALLY ELEVATED BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, COULD BECOME SLICK
FOR ANYONE TRAVELING THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE THIS MORNING, HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
STILL REMAIN CHILLY AS THE CAD WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO ERODE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ARCTIC AIR WILL YIELD VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY
BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT, THEN IN THE LOW/MID 20S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH 5-10 KT WINDS EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIND
CHILLS WILL DIP TO 10-20F FOR A FEW HOURS STRADDLING DAYBREAK
EACH DAY. WE EXPECT TO NEED A SERIES OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MVFR WILL INITIALIZE AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV TO START THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE SC, AND
BOTH KCHS & KJZI HAVE MENTION OF VCSH. IFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, LINGERING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KCHS/KJZI. KSAV COULD SEE A
RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
A VERY TIGHT NE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GA/SC COAST. WE'RE STILL
SEEING GUSTS OF 33-40 KT AT SEVERAL BUOYS SO WE EXTENDED THE
GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL WATERS (EXCEPT CHARLESTON HARBOR) UNTIL
08Z. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL MOVE
NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, AT WHICH POINT WE'LL LIKELY
REPLACE THE GALE WARNING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE. CRITICAL PARTS ARE ON
ORDER AND SHOULD ARRIVE ON MONDAY. USERS SHOULD USE ADJACENT WSR-88D
SITES, INCLUDING KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX AND KJGX.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GAZ087-088.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
354-374.
CPM/JRL
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