723
FXUS62 KCHS 251717
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1217 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. AREAS REMOVED FROM
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FREEZING DRIZZLE/FOG WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
COUNTIES OF SE SC AND SE GA THROUGH MID-DAY.
- 2) ARCTIC AIR WILL YIELD VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR COUNTIES OF SE SC AND SE GA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
OBSERVED SOUNDING THIS MORNING OBSERVED SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE BL WITH A VERY WARM INVERSION, WITH 55F
OBSERVED AROUND 2 KFT. AS THE AREA OF COLD AIR DAMMING GRADUALLY
ERODES, STRATUS WILL LIKELY BUILD DOWN TO THE SFC, FORMING FOG.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE THE AREA OF FOG, WITH
FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
LATE THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS CHARLESTON AND
TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTIES. THEREFORE, THESE ZONES WERE REMOVED
FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. INTERIOR COUNTIES FROM JENKINS
TO BERKELEY COUNTY WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING, FREEZING FOG OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE UNTIL 1 PM.
IN ADDITION, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS POSTED FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
CWA FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY, TIMED TO REACH THE INLAND
COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE STRONG SHEAR WITH SOME INSTABILITY.
WE WILL UPDATE ON THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE FULL
FORECAST UPDATE BY 1 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ARCTIC AIR WILL YIELD VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE.
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. A REINFORCING HIGH WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY
BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S MONDAY NIGHT, THEN IN THE LOW/MID 20S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH 5-10 KT WINDS EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WIND
CHILLS WILL DIP TO 10-20F FOR A FEW HOURS STRADDLING DAYBREAK
EACH DAY. WE EXPECT TO NEED A SERIES OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
DURING THIS PERIOD.
THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW COULD
BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 18Z TAFS, OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
INDICATED LIFR CEILINGS WITH AT LEAST IFR VISIBILITY IN FOG. IN
ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS AND VWP FROM ADJACENT RADARS INDICATE
STRONG WINDS ALOFT, RESULTING IN LLWS OF AT LEAST 35 KTS AT 2
KFT. THE FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z, HOWEVER,
IFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A BAND OF
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS TIMED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING, MAINLY BETWEEN 0-3Z.
THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH TEMPOS. FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WNW WITH GUSTS
DEVELOPING INTO THE LOW 20S KTS BY 10Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS POSTED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
A VERY TIGHT NE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEDGE IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE GALE
WARNINGS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AS THE STRONGEST GRADIENT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE. CRITICAL PARTS ARE ON
ORDER AND SHOULD ARRIVE ON MONDAY. USERS SHOULD USE ADJACENT WSR-88D
SITES, INCLUDING KCAE, KLTX, KJAX, KVAX AND KJGX.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GAZ087-088.
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SCZ040-042>045.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354-
374.
NED
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