475
FXUS62 KCHS 011843
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 9 AM MONDAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING MELTING AND FORECAST COLD
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT, WE MAY HIGHLIGHT THE RISK OF BLACK ICE FROM
SCREVEN TO ALLENDALE COUNTIES SOUTH TO BEAUFORT COUNTY TONIGHT. THIS
WOULD BE DOWN VIA A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH VERY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD TEMPERATURES WITH VERY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS
THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
SNOWFALL FROM LAST NIGHT HAS MELTED. THERE APPEARS SNOW ON THE
GROUND ALONG A LINE FROM MILLHAVEN, GA SOUTHEAST ACROSS FURMAN, SC
TO RICETOWN, SC. SOME SNOW ALSO APPEARS ON SATELLITE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. THE REMAINING SNOWPACK
SHOULD PROVIDE LITTLE IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. USING A
BLEND OF TEMPERATURES, LOWS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
TEENS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM MONDAY. GIVEN THE ONGOING MELTING AND FORECAST COLD
TEMPERATURE TONIGHT, WE MAY HIGHLIGHT THE RISK OF BLACK ICE FROM
SCREVEN TO ALLENDALE COUNTIES SOUTH TO BEAUFORT COUNTY TONIGHT. THIS
WOULD BE DOWN VIA A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
MONDAY NIGHT, CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE
MID 20S. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
20 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT, PASSING TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC,
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT, TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE MID-WEEK. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE SOURCED OVER THE GULF, SUPPORTING A THICK
BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, DEPARTING BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO SUPPORT ONLY PLAIN RAIN. STORM TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE IN
THE 0.1-0.25" RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT MAY BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY, MAINLY DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A DEPARTING
NOR'EASTER AND HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING ON
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE CHS AND NEARSHORE WATERS
WILL END BY LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THE OUTER GA
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FT THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER FL
ON TUESDAY, SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY, QUICKLY MOVING
THROUGH AND THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE DISTANT WEST ON THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 1: (NEW RECORD LOW SET ALL STATIONS SUNDAY MORNING.)
KCHS: 21/1977
KCXM: 23/1900
KSAV: 23/1977
FEBRUARY 2:
KCHS: 19/1980
KCXM: 17/1917
KSAV: 18/1917
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 1:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 36/1900
KSAV: 38/1900
FEBRUARY 2:
KCHS: 38/1980
KCXM: 38/1898
KSAV: 38/1951
RECORD SNOWFALL:
0.7" OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED AT KCHS FOR 01/31. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.6" SET IN 1977.
FEBRUARY 1:
KCHS: NO RECORD ESTABLISHED
KSAV: NO RECORD ESTABLISHED
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
NED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page