306
FXUS62 KCHS 020543
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1243 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT COLD WEATHER
TRENDS. THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH
COLD WEATHER LINGERING INTO TONIGHT.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING WITH COLD WEATHER LINGERING INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY: THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SLOWLY DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES AT 02/05Z ALREADY IN THE
MID-UPPER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURE
FALLS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THEN
ACCELERATE A BIT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIURNAL MINIMUM ONCE A
PATCH OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS PUSHES OFFSHORE AND SKIES CLEAR.
LOWS FROM THE MID-UPPER TEENS INLAND TO THE LOWER-MID 20S AT
THE COAST LOOK ON TRACK. THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT
WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES YIELD MINIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS, SO THE ONGOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
LOOKS WELL PLACED.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL
MEANDER EAST OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND NORTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. THE COMBINATION OF CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND A DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE
02/01Z NBM (VERSION 4.3) IS EXHIBITING ITS WELL DOCUMENTED WARM
BIAS IN STRONG RADIATION REGIMES. ITS TUESDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE OUTLIERS AND WELL OUTSIDE OF THE
WARMER SIDE OF THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) FOR ALL SITES. THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WAS FAVORED WITH ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT BETTER MESOSCALE INFLUENCES (I.E.
LARGER RIVERS AND HARBORS, THE FRANCIS MARION NATIONAL FOREST
AND THE SANTEE-COOPER LAKES TO NAME A FEW). LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 20S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 30S AT THE BEACHES.
SOME AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN BERKELEY AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES
AWAY FROM THE SANTEE-COOPER LAKES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. WHILE THIS IS RIGHT AT
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, THE LIMITED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
EXTENT OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUGGEST CONDITIONS ARE TOO
MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
WILL BE REASSESSED LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MID-LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONSIST OF A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT'LL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH
ITS AXIS LOCATED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WSW FLOW OVER US TUESDAY NIGHT
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A DECENT PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH PWATS PEAKING ~1.1" WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE 90% MARK FOR CHS, PER SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT HAVING RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING OUR FAR
INLAND AREAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN MAKING IT TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA ARE
GENERALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN SHOWERS GRADUALLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE A
FEW ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE BEACHES THAT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE. STORM TOTAL QPF SHOULD BE IN THE 0.1-
0.3" RANGE. THOUGH, THERE ARE SOME MODELS THAT HAVE THESE VALUES
PEAKING ~0.5". TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WARM ENOUGH AT
THE SURFACE AND HIGHER UP TO ONLY GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIP OF BERKELEY COUNTY, TO THE LOW TO MID 40S
EVERYWHERE ELSE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
50S NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER, TO THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, MAINLY REACHED TOWARDS DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
02/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 03/06Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, MAINLY DUE TO
RAIN SHOWERS. VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH
NEARSHORE LEG WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 4 AM TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS OF GUSTS 25 KT.
TODAY: NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ELEVATED
SEAS ABOVE 6 FT WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNSET FOR THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY: QUIET CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. WEST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CROSSES THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS
WILL BE 4 FT OR LESS, EXCEPT 4-5 FT TONIGHT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER FL ON TUESDAY. IT'LL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY, QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND THEN
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
DISTANT WEST ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE COULD NEED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED DUE TO
WINDS AND SEAS ON FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 2:
KCHS: 19/1980
KCXM: 17/1917
KSAV: 18/1917
FEBRUARY 3:
KCHS: 21/1940
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ087-
088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
ST/-
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