395
FXUS62 KCHS 021754
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT
YIELDING CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRY LOW-LVL AIRMASS IN-PLACE
WILL SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND THE ESAT NAEFS HIGHLIGHTS THIS
WELL WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF -3.5 FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MORNING. IT'S ALSO FAIRLY HIGH MODEL CONFIDENCE AS IQR SHOWS
A 1 TO 2 DEGREE SPREAD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE VALUES. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND MID TO
UPPER 30S AT THE BEACHES OVERNIGHT. MIXED THE NBM/NBM25 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS THE 02/13Z NBM APPEARED TO BE STRUGGLING
TO REALIZE THE STRENGTH OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME. 02.12Z
HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 20 DEGREES AND THEREFORE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS
NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PWS ~1.1" WED PM)
SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SHOWERS COULD BE MOVING INTO INTERIOR SC/GA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OUTRUN THE SUB-FREEZING
LOW-LEVEL AIR BY ABOUT 6 HRS, SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION-TYPE CONCERNS. TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.2"-0.5".
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
02/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 03/18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, MAINLY DUE TO RAIN
SHOWERS. VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT
PERSIST. ELEVATED SEAS ABOVE 6 FT WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNSET FOR THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7PM.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KT. AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 22-23.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT WINDS TO DIAL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL RANGE 2 TO 3 FT THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4 TO 5FT IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN W WINDS ON
FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT DUE TO 25 KT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS.
CLIMATE
FEBRUARY 3:
KCHS: 21/1940
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
DENNIS/JRL
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