458
FXUS62 KCHS 022335
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
635 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
- 2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: EXPECT COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TONIGHT YIELDING CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH A DRY LOW-LVL
AIRMASS IN-PLACE WILL SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND
THE ESAT NAEFS HIGHLIGHTS THIS WELL WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION
OF -3.5 FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING. IT'S ALSO
FAIRLY HIGH MODEL CONFIDENCE AS IQR SHOWS A 1 TO 2 DEGREE SPREAD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE VALUES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 30S AT THE
BEACHES OVERNIGHT. MIXED THE NBM/NBM25 INTO THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS THE 02/13Z NBM APPEARED TO BE STRUGGLING TO
REALIZE THE STRENGTH OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME. 02.12Z
HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 20 DEGREES AND THEREFORE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IS NOT WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT (PWS ~1.1" WED PM)
SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SHOWERS COULD BE MOVING INTO INTERIOR SC/GA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OUTRUN THE SUB-FREEZING
LOW-LEVEL AIR BY ABOUT 6 HRS, SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PRECIPITATION-TYPE CONCERNS. TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.2"-0.5".
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, MAINLY DUE TO
RAIN SHOWERS. VFR RETURNS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
5 TO 10 KT PERSIST. ELEVATED SEAS UP TO 5 6 FT WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KT. AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 22-23.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT WINDS TO DIAL DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEAS WILL RANGE 2 TO 3 FT THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4 TO 5FT IN
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN W WINDS ON
FRIDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT DUE TO 25 KT WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH
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