964
FXUS62 KCHS 030544
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1244 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- 3) DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING.
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS ARE SUPPORTING A STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING REGIME EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 03/05Z WERE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 AT THE
BEACHES. HIGH CLOUDS ARE POISED TO INCREASE A BIT PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK, WHICH COULD HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GET; HOWEVER, ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING WILL
OCCUR. AS NOTED YESTERDAY, THE NBM (VERSION 4.3) HAS A VERY WARM
BIAS IN STRONG RADIATIONAL REGIMES AND THE 02/01Z RUN FOLLOWS
THIS TREND. ITS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS STILL RUNNING
OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER SIDE OF THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR).
LOWS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN FROM THE 02/01Z NBM BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. THE FRANCIS MARION NATIONAL FOREST AND THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE
SANTEE-COOPER LAKES COULD SEE SOME SPOTS BRIEFLY BOTTOM OUT
AROUND 20 OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. GIVEN THE LIMITED DURATION
AND IMPACTED AREA WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 20, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN
CASE TEMPERATURES FALL A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED; OTHERWISE,
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER
30S AT THE BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS DROUGHT
STRICKEN AREAS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TOUGH,
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA-
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION OFF THE GULF CHARACTERIZED BY A TONGUE OF PWATS IN
EXCESS OF 1" IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INCREASING
DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE COUPLED WITH MODEST FORCING ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A RATHER LARGE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
POISED TO REACH INLAND AREAS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY, AND CLEARING THE
COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ROTATING IN ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING SURFACE LOW MAY LINGER ACROSS
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100% WERE HIGHLIGHTED WITH A QPF OF
0.25-0.50". THIS WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO
DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS, BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE D1 (MODERATE) TO D3 (SEVERE) DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THAT ARE IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE MODELS STARTING TO DIVERGE ON MONDAY.
MODELS HINT THAT THERE COULD BE SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS APPROACHING
AND TRYING TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, WE EMPHASIZE THEY'RE WEAK AND NO PRECIPITATION IS
IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL BRING OUR
AREA DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, RISING TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
INLAND COULD BE LOWER THAN FORECASTED. HOWEVER, WINDS DON'T
APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
03/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 04/06Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, MAINLY DUE TO
RAIN SHOWERS. VFR FOR THURSDAY ON.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: THERE NO MARINE CONCERNS TODAY,
BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. RIGHT NOW, ITS
APPEARS THE NEARSHORE LEGS AND CHARLESTON HARBOR SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS SHOULD APPROACH
AND TRY TO MOVE THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS. BUT HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY WILL BE THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE MOST OF THIS TIME
PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PROMPT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL, THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MOST OF OUR WATERS.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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