377
FXUS62 KCHS 031735
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1235 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, THEN TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, THEN TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDING. DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWS EXCEEDING 1" LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND OFF THE COAST BY AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TOTAL QPF WILL GENERALLY BE 1/4" TO 1/2", THOUGH INTERIOR SC/GA
COULD SEE A BIT MORE THAN THAT. THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WITH
THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. THERE IS NOW SOME INDICATION THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE SC COAST UNTIL MID-MORNING ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z, THOUGH CEILING RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND THAT TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN VFR
THURSDAY ONWARD.
MARINE
W WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH 25 KT
GUSTS ON THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. SCAS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THIS ZONE AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD TO 6-7 FT.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE PLANNED FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
JRL
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