795
FXUS62 KCHS 032307
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
607 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, THEN TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, THEN TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THEN REBUILDING. DECENT GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PWS EXCEEDING 1" LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BAND OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SLOWLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AND OFF THE COAST BY AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
TOTAL QPF WILL GENERALLY BE 1/4" TO 1/2", THOUGH INTERIOR SC/GA
COULD SEE A BIT MORE THAN THAT. THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WITH
THIS FORECAST CYCLE IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. THERE IS NOW SOME INDICATION THAT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE SC COAST UNTIL MID-MORNING ON
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT LEAST
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL INCREASE. STEADIER LIGHT
RAIN SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID AFTERNOON AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. AS THIS STEADY
LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN, CEILINGS WILL LOWER AT LEAST INTO THE MVFR
RANGE. IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THEN VFR THURSDAY ONWARD.
MARINE
W WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH 25
KT GUSTS ON THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS POTENTIALLY NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. SCAS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THIS ZONE AS SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD TO 6-7 FT.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE PLANNED FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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