938
FXUS62 KCHS 040901
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION WAS CHANGED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PUSH EAST TODAY. A FRONTAL WAVE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST UVVS INDUCED BY DCVA AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE FAR WESTERN AREAS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK THEN SLOWLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE DAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO EXIT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST.
CATEGORICAL POPS OF 80-100% STILL LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE
MAINTAINED. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL RATES WITH OCCUR WITH A
GENERAL QPF OF 1/4 TO 1/2 OF AN INCH.
DESPITE THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY, THE RISK FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFFSHORE AND BROAD
SUBSIDENCE SETTLES IN WITH ITS DEPARTURE. THERE ARE SOME LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BERKELEY COUNTY (SAINT STEPHEN TO
JAMESTOWN) FROM DAYBREAK THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SHOULD
THESE OCCUR, THERE WOULD BE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SOME VERY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE NUCLEATION PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT KMKS AND KCKI.
WHILE THE FORECAST WILL NOT REFLECT TEMPERATURES QUITE THAT
COLD, THERE IS ABOUT 5-10% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW
FREEZING. THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY AN OUTLIER, BUT WORTH
MONITORING IN CASE GUIDANCE TRENDS COLDER AND/OR A BIT WETTER.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
04/12Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DRAWS CLOSER AND WIDESPREAD RAINS
SPREAD EAST. THE STEADIER RAINS SHOULD REACH THE TERMINALS BY
MID-AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE
NEARBY BY MID-MORNING. THE RISK FOR IFR CONDITIONS (COMBINATION
OF LOW CIGS AND RAIN) WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THE
TERMINALS JUST BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: IFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO HIGH CONFIDENCE CONCERNS.
MARINE
EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING, THEN
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF WINDS ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20
NM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL FRIDAY
MORNING, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE OCEAN ZONES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION, THEN PREVAILS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE PLANNED FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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