064
FXUS62 KCHS 041748
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1248 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AMZ374 FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH POSITIONED
JUST WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT 250 HPA WILL SWING
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
RECEIVING GENERALLY 0.25-0.5" OF RAIN. WHILE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE SITUATED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR EVEN DRIZZLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN A COLDER AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING WHILE PRECIPITATION LINGERS. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE (<10%) THAT VERY NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE SOME PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING. GIVEN THAT THIS SCENARIO
IS SUCH A LOW PROBABILITY IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST,
BUT WORTH MENTIONING THERE COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IN
THIS LOCATION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS RAINFALL
OVERTAKES THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION. AS OF 18Z KCHS/KJZI/KSAV ARE ALL VFR,
HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO ARRIVE AT KCHS/KJZI WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR SO HAVE INITIALIZED THE 18Z TAFS WITH MVFR CIGS.
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH IFR
CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. RESTRICTIVE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
AT KCHS/KJZI THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: MVFR CIGS COULD PERSIST INTO MID-LATE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY, FAVORING A SOUTHWEST
WIND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT AWAY FROM
THE COAST. SEAS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL THIS EVENING, THEN FOLLOWED BY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WINDS/SEAS WILL
TREND STRONGER/LARGER HEADING INTO THE DAY THURSDAY AND ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT), BEFORE IMPROVEMENT BEGINS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED NEARBY DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN THEREFORE BEEN
ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, BUT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER PASSING COLD FRONT LATE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE NEEDED FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING UPWARDS TO 25-30 KT ACROSS MOST
AREAS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW-END THREAT FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD
LARGEST AWAY FROM THE COAST, GENERALLY UP TO 5-8 FT DURING THE PEAK
OF THE EVENT FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE DURING THE
WEEKEND, FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL WATERS
LATE MORNING SATURDAY, THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS OPERATIONAL, BUT COULD GO DOWN AT ANY TIME.
ADDITIONAL REPAIRS ARE PLANNED FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ374.
CPM/DPB
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