327
FXUS62 KCHS 051646
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1146 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LINGER
TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE
WILL LINGER TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA MIDLANDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE OFFSHORE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK,
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS BY MID-MORNING. LOCAL RADARS SHOW
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED WELL OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC,
BUT AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF DRIZZLE WILL
LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. STRONG WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL FILL IN FROM NORTH-
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THIS EVENING BEFORE STEADY CLEARING OCCURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OFFSHORE. A BLEND OF THE CONSSHORT WITH HOURLY
RAP/H3R OUTPUT WERE FAVORED TO CONSTRUCT TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING STEADY OR FALLING AS THE DAY PROGRESS. THEY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE MID-UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE. BY MID-
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY TO THE MID 40S CLOSER TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.
THERE IS STILL A LOW-END CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING, MOST LIKELY FROM DAYBREAK TO
LATE-MORNING. HREF AND NBM PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING FREEZING
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-30% IN THE SAINT STEPHEN TO JAMESTOWN
CORRIDOR. SHOULD FREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AT KMKS AND KCKI SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR
GIVEN THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT ICE NUCLEATION IN THE CLOUD. THIS
SCENARIO IS STILL CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER SOLUTION, BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
05/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KCHS AND KJZI
AND IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF KSAV. WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN
LIFR REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH A PERSISTENCE OF
IFR INTO THE EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING/ EARLY TONIGHT, CIGS
WILL START TO GO BKN AND THEN SCT WITH A RECOVERY TO VFR
EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A
RECOVERY TO VFR OCCURRING ONLY FOR IFR TO THEN RETURN. THIS IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT A PARTIAL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD ALSO BE MANIFESTED AS FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE TRICOUNTY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING DRIER AIR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO PART OF TONIGHT, MAINLY DUE TO WINDS. FOLLOWING A
BRIEF LULL FRIDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER FRIDAY,
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF THE OCEAN ZONES LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE NEAR GALE CONDITIONS
FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
LATER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, THEN
PREVAILS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EQUIPMENT
KCLX IS NOW BACK IN SERVICE WITH CALIBRATION BEING COMPLETED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.
HAINES
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