036
FXUS62 KCHS 051829
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS. A KEY
MESSAGE WAS ALSO ADDED FOR LOW WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A RISK FOR ISOLATED DRIZZLE WILL LINGER TODAY WITH CLOUDY
SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS WELL OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAD FRONT STARTING TO UNDERGO
FRONTOLYSIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/ GEORGIA BORDER. KCLX WAS
CHANGED TO LONG PULSE/ VCP 31 AND THE DECAYING CAD WAS ANALYZED
JUST NEAR INTERSTATE 16.
BEHIND THE CAD, TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY FALLEN WITH DRIZZLE
MOSTLY COMING TO AN END, BUT OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
MONCKS CORNER ALREADY AT 34 DEGREES. MID 30S ARE BEING REPORTED
DOWN TO COLLETON COUNTY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW-END CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE AROUND 10 - 20% IN THE
SAINT STEPHEN TO JAMESTOWN CORRIDOR. IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR, IT WOULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT ICE NUCLEATION IN THE CLOUD.
THIS SCENARIO IS STILL CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER SOLUTION, BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
LATER TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA (EXCEPT AT THE BEACHES), BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
VIRGINA/ NORTH CAROLINA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES APPEAR TIGHT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME WIND, AND
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S, WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS ARE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE LREF SHOWS
PROBABILITIES IN THE 50% TO 75% RANGE ACROSS THE TRICOUNTY WITH
PERCENTAGES IN THE 25% TO 50% RANGE FOR COASTAL GEORGIA. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MIGHT BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
05/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED KCHS AND KJZI
AND IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF KSAV. WIDESPREAD IFR AND EVEN
LIFR REMAINS ACROSS ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH A PERSISTENCE OF
IFR INTO THE EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING/ EARLY TONIGHT, CIGS
WILL START TO GO BKN AND THEN SCT WITH A RECOVERY TO VFR
EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A
RECOVERY TO VFR OCCURRING ONLY FOR IFR TO THEN RETURN. THIS IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT A PARTIAL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD ALSO BE MANIFESTED AS FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE TRICOUNTY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING DRIER AIR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT NOW HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 7 PM SATURDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHT ENOUGH THAT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR WATERS BEYOND 20 NM, ISOLATED GALE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES OF REACHING GALE GUSTS
ONLY PEAK AT 15% TO 30%. GIVEN THAT, HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INSTEAD. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND REFINE.
EQUIPMENT
KCLX IS NOW BACK IN SERVICE WITH CALIBRATION BEING COMPLETED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
HAINES
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