193
FXUS62 KCHS 052345
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
645 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS. A KEY
MESSAGE WAS ALSO ADDED FOR LOW WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A RISK FOR ISOLATED DRIZZLE WILL LINGER TODAY WITH CLOUDY
SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A RISK FOR ISOLATED DRIZZLE WILL LINGER TODAY
WITH CLOUDY SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS WELL OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAD FRONT STARTING TO UNDERGO
FRONTOLYSIS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/ GEORGIA BORDER. KCLX WAS
CHANGED TO LONG PULSE/ VCP 31 AND THE DECAYING CAD WAS ANALYZED
JUST NEAR INTERSTATE 16.
BEHIND THE CAD, TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY FALLEN WITH DRIZZLE
MOSTLY COMING TO AN END, BUT OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
MONCKS CORNER ALREADY AT 34 DEGREES. MID 30S ARE BEING REPORTED
DOWN TO COLLETON COUNTY.
THERE IS STILL A LOW-END CHANCE THAT A PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
BERKELEY COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE AROUND 10 - 20% IN THE
SAINT STEPHEN TO JAMESTOWN CORRIDOR. IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR, IT WOULD BE FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT ICE NUCLEATION IN THE CLOUD.
THIS SCENARIO IS STILL CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER SOLUTION, BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
LATER TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA (EXCEPT AT THE BEACHES), BUT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR ZERO.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE VIRGINA / NORTH
CAROLINA BORDER SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
APPEAR TIGHT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME WIND, AND WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S, WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST RUN OF THE LREF SHOWS PROBABILITIES IN
THE 50% TO 75% RANGE ACROSS THE TRICOUNTY WITH PERCENTAGES IN
THE 25% TO 50% RANGE FOR COASTAL GEORGIA. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MIGHT BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 0Z TAFS, OBSERVATIONS INDICATED IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. IR SATELLITE INDICATED THAT THE
LOW CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE FALL LINE OF THE
SC/GA. THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DRIFT EAST, REACHING
THE TERMINALS BY 6Z, RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY, A
WARM FRONT IS TIMED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID-DAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WEST WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT NOW HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 7 PM SATURDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHT ENOUGH THAT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR WATERS BEYOND 20 NM, ISOLATED GALE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABILITIES OF REACHING GALE GUSTS
ONLY PEAK AT 15% TO 30%. GIVEN THAT, HAVE OPTED FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES INSTEAD. FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND REFINE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ330-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
HAINES/NED
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