015
FXUS62 KCHS 060607
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE ADDED FOR FREEZING FOG AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON
LAKE MOULTRIE. COLD WEATHER KEY MESSAGE AS UPDATED TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS. THE AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 06Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PATCHY FREEZING FOG COULD PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
- 2) HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MOULTRIE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- 3) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY FREEZING FOG COULD PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS
THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAS
LED TO THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. THE LOWEST 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
PROGGED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY INTO
COLLETON COUNTY THROUGH DAYBREAK WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THE FOG WILL BE A BIT MORE
SHALLOW IN NATURE GIVEN THE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.
THE FOG COULD TRANSITION TO FREEZING FOG AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING. THIS COULD RESULT IN A DEVELOPMENT
OF FEW SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADWAYS (ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES) ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT ICING ON SOME COLDER,
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREE BRANCHES, CARS AND FENCES. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE
SITUATION, BUT IF THE FREEZING FOG BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD AND
THE RISK FOR ICING IMPACTS INCREASES, A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
SLICK SPOTS THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MOULTRIE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS ON LAKE MOULTRIE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING BEHIND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERAS
AND 1034 HPA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD REACH AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KT ALONG WITH WAVES OF 1-2 FT, HIGHEST OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM SUNSET THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BOATERS ON
LAKE MOULTRIE SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION SINCE STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH WAVES CAN OVERTURN SMALL CRAFT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES, AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
EARLY FEBRUARY NORMALS, ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST
CONCERN IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL WELL INTO THE 20S. THERE LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND PRESENT TO BRING A CONCERN FOR WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY WHERE LREF CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A 60-80% CHANCE FOR SEEING APPARENT T < 21 F.
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER FURTHER SOUTH, BUT THE POTENTIAL IS
STILL THERE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
06/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 07/06Z. SOME LIGHT FOG
WILL IMPACT KCHS AND KJZI THROUGH ABOUT 09Z GIVEN LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. VSBYS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN MVFR. IF THE FOG DOES BECOME LOCALLY DENSE, SOME LIGHT
ICING FROM FREEZING FOG COULD OCCUR GIVEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WELL
OFFSHORE OF CAPE HATTERS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT
OF THE MID- UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION, COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS. WINDS SHOULD REACH 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT, INCLUDING
CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE RISK FOR GALES HAS INCREASED ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT WHERE VERSION 5 NBM PROBS FOR GUSTS >34 KT ARE
RUNNING 50-80%. THE HREF IS EVEN HIGHER WITH 80-100%
PROBABILITIES. PER COORDINATION WITH WFO JACKSONVILLE AND THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE WATCH WILL EITHER BE UPGRADED
TO A GALE WARNING OR A HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATER
TODAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ374.
ST/ETM
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