599
FXUS62 KCHS 061821
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE AND DISCUSSION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
ANTICIPATED TRENDS. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR
THE 18Z FRIDAY TAF ISSUANCE. THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT MINOR CHANGES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND AN
UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MOULTRIE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LAKE MOULTRIE
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY, THEN SHIFT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT, PRODUCING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS
WAKE WHILE AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. AS A RESULT, LOW-LVL MIXING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE ACROSS
LAKE MOULTRIE, RESULTING IN WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 KT OVERNIGHT. WAVES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
1-2 FT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BOATERS ON LAKE MOULTRIE SHOULD USE
EXTRA CAUTION SINCE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES CAN OVERTURN SMALL
CRAFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW EXITING OFF OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY
YIELDING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. ALSO, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SET-UP WILL
SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. ESAT NAEFS
HIGHLIGHTS THIS WELL WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF -3.0 TO -3.5
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING. IT'S ALSO FAIRLY
HIGH MODEL CONFIDENCE AS IQR SHOWS A 1 TO 2 DEGREE SPREAD FOR
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE VALUES. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S ACROSS SE GEORGIA. MIXED THE NBM/NBM25 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS THE 06/13Z NBM APPEARED TO BE
STRUGGLING TO REALIZE THE STRENGTH OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIME. LREF PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INDICATE 30-60% CHANCE
FOR SEEING WIND CHILLS BELOW 20F, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY. PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER FURTHER SOUTH,
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE. THEREFORE, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY COULD BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE A LULL PERIOD EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS (15-20 KT) FROM THE NORTHWEST OCCUR AT CHS/JZI DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT AS A DRY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA,
FOLLOWED BY EVEN STRONGER GUSTS (20-25 KT) DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
AT SAV, NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN MID-LATE MORNING
SATURDAY, GENERALLY UP TO 15-20 KT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS, SUPPORTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS INITIALLY, FOLLOWED BY
NEARSHORE WATERS MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NOTABLY HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARRIVES BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT, PRODUCING
FAVORABLE LOW-LVL MIXING INTO STRONGER WIND FIELDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL WATERS, INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR BY EVENING HOURS, WITH LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS (NEAR 90% PROBABILITIES) ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ACROSS ALL
WATERS SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY ENDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY, THEN IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE SATURDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, LIKELY ENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR REMAINING LOCAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
AMZ374.
DENNIS/DPB
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