036
FXUS62 KCHS 070555
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE AND
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A DRY COLD FRONT IS JUST UPSTREAM
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
AS IT DOES, COLDER AIR AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE. THOUGH LAKE
TEMPERATURES ARE ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 40S, THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT MIXING TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS INTO THE
24-28 KNOT RANGE THIS MORNING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1 PM, AS WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH BY AROUND
MIDDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SIMILARLY, WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE
25-30 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
CHARLESTON HARBOR, WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER WATERS. THE PEAK
PERIOD OF WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY LAST THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE
TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL WELL INTO THE
20S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND PRESENT (5-10
MPH) TO BRING A CONCERN FOR WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
WHERE LATEST HREF HIGHLIGHTS A 50- 80% CHANCE FOR SEEING
APPARENT T < 21F. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NOTABLY, THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT- LIVED AS WE WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT KCHS AND KJZI
BEGINNING JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TURNING WINDS FROM WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE
25- 30 KNOT RANGE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND CHARLESTON
HARBOR, AS WELL AS A PERIOD OF GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE IN THE
OUTER GA WATERS. THE PEAK PERIOD OF WINDS SHOULD COME FROM THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING PROFILES LESSEN.
THEN OVERNIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER MODEST SURGE AS WINDS
TURN NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE ON SUNDAY, WITH NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-
354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.
BSH/ETM
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