056
FXUS62 KCHS 071140
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
640 AM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE CANCELLATION OF THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY AND CHANGES TO THE MARINE WIND HAZARDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY INCLUDING
LAKE MOULTRIE AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
- 2) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
INCLUDING LAKE MOULTRIE AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
A DRY COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS INCLUDING LAKE MOULTRIE AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
FOR LAKE MOULTRIE, IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT OR
STRONGER GUSTS HAS DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY TO CANCEL THE LAKE
WIND ADVISORY EARLY. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, THE GALE WARNING
FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS HAS COME TO AN END AND HAS BEEN REPLACED
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, THE ONLY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINING IS FOR
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLE NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. FOR LAND AREAS, THE
MAIN AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DOWN THROUGH COLLETON COUNTY. GUSTS
INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE
TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL WELL INTO THE
20S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND PRESENT (5-10
MPH) TO BRING A CONCERN FOR WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
WHERE LATEST HREF HIGHLIGHTS A 50- 80% CHANCE FOR SEEING
APPARENT T < 21F. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NOTABLY, THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SHORT- LIVED AS WE WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT KCHS AND KJZI
BEGINNING JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE 18-23 KNOT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: A DRY COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS HAVE IMPROVED SUCH THAT THE GALE
WARNING FOR THE OUTER GA WATERS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, ONLY THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS MAINTAINS THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN AND PRODUCE A MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS, WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE, EXCEPT FOR
THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WHERE THERE WILL REMAIN A
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS. FOR SEAS, THE NEARSHORE WATERS
SHOULD MOSTLY TOP OUT IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE, AND UP TO 6 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE ON SUNDAY, WITH NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
BSH/ETM
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