250
FXUS62 KCHS 072341
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
641 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE
WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING.
AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXITING OFF OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COASTLINE DIVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON,
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ALSO, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS SET-UP WILL
SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS SE GEORGIA. ESAT NAEFS HIGHLIGHTS THIS WELL
WITH A STANDARD DEVIATION OF -3.0 TO -3.5 FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED THE NBM/NBM25 INTO THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS THE 07/13Z NBM APPEARED TO BE STRUGGLING TO REALIZE
THE STRENGTH OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME. 12Z.HREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE 40-60% CHANCE FOR SEEING WIND CHILLS BELOW
21F, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE IN AREAS ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER
(SPECIFICALLY THE TOWNS OF AWENDAW, SAINT STEPHEN, JAMESTOWN, AND
MCCLELLANVILLE). HOWEVER, THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED (LESS
THAN 2 HOURS), AND THEREFORE IT DID NOT SEEM WARRANTED TO ISSUE A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 0Z
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS
THE LOW EXITING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE CONTINUES TO RACE
FURTHER AWAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DIAL BACK EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. RECENT BUOY DATA INDICATES
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT HERE IN THE LAST COUPLE
HOURS AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ374 WILL EXPIRE AT 18Z
(1PM) THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PRODUCE
A MODEST SURGE OF WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS. THIS
WILL YIELD A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO AMZ350 UNTIL SUN. 14Z (9AM).
NOT MUCH OF A SWELL OUT THERE AT THE MOMENT WITH SEAS RANGING 2 TO 3
FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL STAY BENIGN AS SOME EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL SURGES INTO THE LOCAL WATERS ON EARLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE TAPERING BACK IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS, MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE AND CONDITIONS REMAIN UNDER SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
CPM/DENNIS/NED
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