360
FXUS62 KCHS 081123
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
623 AM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE. KEY MESSAGE 2 WAS ADDED TO ADDRESS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE LOW 20S
EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY REGION.
- 2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE LOW
20S EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY REGION.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION THIS
MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO BE ELEVATED AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN, AND THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND
PERSISTENT WINDS WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS THAT COULD BRIEFLY REACH
20 DEGREES. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS BERKELEY COUNTY AND
UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE FRANCIS MARION
NATIONAL FOREST AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWEST.
ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WILL BE MORE
COMMON. BASED ON THE MARGINAL VALUES AND SHORT-LIVED DURATION, A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA AT THE SURFACE. STILL SOME TIMING INCONSISTENCIES, BUT THE
FRONT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, WITH NBM
PROBS FOR 24 HR TOTALS > 0.25" THROUGH THURSDAY GENERALLY ONLY
10-20%. LATER IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GETS MORE
UNCERTAIN AS INDICATED BY ENSEMBLE SPREAD THROUGH CLUSTER
ANALYSIS - LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. REGARDLESS, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE OH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SC/GA COAST. A SOLID
NORTHEAST SURGE IS UNDERWAY, WITH 15-20 KNOTS OF FLOW STEADILY
EXPANDING DOWN ALONG THE SC COAST AND EVENTUALLY ALONG THE GA
COAST AS WELL. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS SEEM LIKELY ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THERE. FURTHER DOWN THE COAST FOR THE SOUTHERN SC WATERS
AND THE NEARSHORE GA WATERS, THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
IS LESS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WITH THE INITIAL
SURGE, BUT WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO BE 15-20 KNOTS
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND SUNRISE AND SHOULD THEN
STEADILY DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS IS
SET TO EXPIRE BY 9 AM. THEN BY THE OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE. SEAS SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING, 2-4 FEET
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION MIDWEEK. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. GUSTS COULD
REACH AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE CHANCE
FOR EXCEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 25 KT OR GREATER
QUITE LOW (<10% PER NBM PROBS). SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
BSH/ETM
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