468
FXUS62 KCHS 081732
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1232 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE KEY MESSAGE REGARDING THE COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN REMOVED. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
BROAD TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MID WEEK
WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEEK. THERE ARE
STILL SOME INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE RAINFALL, BUT GENERALLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL LIKELY WON'T BE A DROUGHT
BUSTER, WITH NBM PROBABILITIES OF >0.25" ONLY AROUND 10-20%.
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SET UP, SHOWN THROUGH WPC CLUSTER
PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS.
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY NE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO THE REGION MID WEEK. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR >25 KNOT WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ARE
ONLY AROUND 20% IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS, WITH
LOWER PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM
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