740
FXUS62 KCHS 090532
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1232 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXPECTED TO ROTATE
ALONG THE BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
LIMITED. LATEST NBM PROBS FOR 24 HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS >0.10"
ENDING 7 AM THURSDAY IS ROUGHLY 30-50%, WHILE PROBS FOR >0.25"
IS ONLY 10-30%. ANY PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
GENERAL PATTERN WOULD INDICATE A POTENT MID LEVEL WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND
TRACKING OVER/NEAR THE AREA, THOUGH THERE ARE STILL NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. SO WHILE THIS SET-UP WILL FAVOR ELEVATED
RAIN CHANCES, FORECAST DETAILS ON TIMING, AMOUNTS, AND COVERAGE
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY
ALLOWING NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE MORNING TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS
MORNING, WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO COME DOWN, GENERALLY NO MORE
THAN 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THIS MORNING, THEN 2-3 FT
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, SUPPORTING
INCREASING WINDS. SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE, WITH LOW END POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT
RANGE. THIS TIME PERIOD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS
MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINLY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OUTER GA WATERS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/ETM
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