880
FXUS62 KCHS 101121
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
621 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE DISCUSSION FOR KEY MESSAGE 1.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TO
QUICKLY PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC THIS EVENING,
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. AS NOTED IN DAYS PAST, THIS BOUNDARY MAY CAUSE A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE
QUITE MEAGER, SUGGESTING THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ONLY SUPPORTS AROUND A
30-40% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN A TENTH OF RAIN. RATHER,
THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL ENTAIL MOST OF THE AREA ONLY
SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE WEEKEND, AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED AND IMPACTFUL SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT OUR AREA. DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER REGION EJECTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE
SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY MONDAY. WHILE PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, EXPECT THE BETTER
CHANCES (80%+) TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WAA BLOSSOMS ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. DESPITE THERE STILL
BEING VARIABILITY IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW,
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWCASES A 70-80% CHANCE OF SEEING
GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH OF RAIN, WITH CHANCES DROPPING TO 40-60%
FOR GREATER THAN AN INCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
IN THE COMING DAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF IFR
STRATUS EXPANDING INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OUT OF SOUTH GEORGIA.
THIS STRATUS IS ABOUT TO REACH KVDI AND KRVJ AND IF IT WERE TO
HOLD TOGETHER COULD REACH THE VICINITY OF KSAV BY AROUND
14-15Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STRATUS WILL SCATTER OUT
BEFORE REACHING KSAV, BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE LOCAL WATERS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME
SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A
COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY, WITH 10-15 KNOTS OF
FLOW EVERYWHERE AND UP TO 15-20 KNOTS IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. OVERNIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN. SPEEDS WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS EVERYWHERE, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
THE OUTER GA WATERS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY
(20-30%) OF SEEING A PERIOD OF 25 KNOT GUSTS IN THE OUTER
REACHES OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS.
AT THIS TIME, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. THERE IS STILL A LOW PROBABILITY (20-30%) OF
SEEING 25 KNOT GUSTS IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/SST
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