734
FXUS62 KCHS 101807
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO DISCUSSION FOR KEY MESSAGE 1 IN REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TRENDS. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE MARINE SECTION FOR INCLUDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL HAZARDS THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT, H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LVL TROUGH
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY, WHILE A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK (30-50%
CHANCE), THEN EXPANDING EAST AND PEAKING IN COVERAGE EARLY AFTERNOON
(60-80% - HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA), BEFORE ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING EVENING HOURS. PRECIP AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE DESPITE A FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR
1.25 INCHES) AND THE DURATION/SPEED OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE 0.1 TO 0.25 INCH RANGE. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 24-HR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ENDING 7 AM THURSDAY INDICATE 40-70% FOR AMOUNTS >0.10" AND
20-40% FOR AMOUNTS >0.25" WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SC COAST. ANY PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT THIS WEEKEND
WITH MODELS INDICATING A POTENT MID-LVL LOW PASSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST DURING A TIME WHEN THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES WARM-SECTORED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THE PEAK OF PRECIP
COVERAGE OCCURRING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING (70-90% CHANCE) WHEN
MOISTURE SUPPLY IS LARGEST (PWATS 1.25-1.50 INCHES) DURING PEAK
FORCING. DESPITE SOME VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
LOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DISPLAYS A 70-80% CHANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS
>0.5" AND 50-70% FOR >1.0". QPF AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH CONTINUE TO
BE ADVERTISED BY WPC LATE WEEKEND AS WELL, WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN
WARM-SECTORING/SOUTHERLY FLOW PRIOR TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/FRONT
SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
ABOUT 12Z WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD THEN BRING MVFR
RESTRICTIONS AT SAV FROM 12-16Z WEDNESDAY AND CHS/JZI FROM
14-18Z WEDNESDAY. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THESE
TIME RANGES. OUTSIDE OF PRECIP AND LOWER CIGS, SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY MID-LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS, PEAKING IN THE LOWER 20S IN SPEED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, HOWEVER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE
LOCAL WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE SITTING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL YIELD WIND SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES WITH 15 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. A BIT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL SURGES INTO THE LOCAL WATERS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3 TO 6 FT IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
HENCE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED. AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING BACK. AS THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO
DIAL BACK AND REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM AFTER WEDNESDAY AS EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL LINGERS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ350-374.
DENNIS/DPB
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