914
FXUS62 KCHS 102311
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
611 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 11/00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT, H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LVL
TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY,
WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT/MODERATE SHOWERS STARTING AROUND
DAYBREAK (30-50% CHANCE), THEN EXPANDING EAST AND PEAKING IN
COVERAGE EARLY AFTERNOON (60-80% - HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA), BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING EVENING
HOURS. PRECIP AMOUNTS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE DESPITE A
FAIRLY LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES) AND THE
DURATION/SPEED OF THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
MOST AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 0.1 TO 0.25
INCH RANGE. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 24-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENDING
7 AM THURSDAY INDICATE 40-70% FOR AMOUNTS >0.10" AND 20-40% FOR
AMOUNTS >0.25" WITH HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SC COAST.
ANY PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED TO END BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT THIS
WEEKEND WITH MODELS INDICATING A POTENT MID-LVL LOW PASSING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING A TIME WHEN THE LOCAL AREA BECOMES
WARM-SECTORED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST
THE PEAK OF PRECIP COVERAGE OCCURRING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
(70-90% CHANCE) WHEN MOISTURE SUPPLY IS LARGEST (PWATS 1.25-1.50
INCHES) DURING PEAK FORCING. DESPITE SOME VARIABILITY IN THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DISPLAYS A
70-80% CHANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS >0.5" AND 50-70% FOR >1.0". QPF
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED BY WPC LATE
WEEKEND AS WELL, WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN SOME LOCATIONS
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITHIN WARM-
SECTORING/SOUTHERLY FLOW PRIOR TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/FRONT
SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
11/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 12/00Z. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
MEANINGFUL REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS GIVEN THE FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER (8000-10,000 FT). A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KCHS/KJZI
RIGHT AT THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME
GIVEN IT WOULD BE IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME, BUT THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST MVFR VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITH THAT LINE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE
LOCAL WATERS BECOME SANDWICHED BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE SITTING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SET-UP WILL YIELD WIND SPEEDS OF
10 TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MARINE ZONES WITH 15 TO
20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. A BIT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL SURGES INTO THE LOCAL WATERS WITH WAVES 2 TO 4 FT IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3 TO 6 FT IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
HENCE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED. AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXING BACK. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT WINDS TO DIAL BACK AND REMAIN
RELATIVELY CALM AFTER WEDNESDAY AS EAST- NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
LINGERS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
AMZ350-374.
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