916
FXUS62 KCHS 111112
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
612 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS. KEY MESSAGE
1 WAS ADDED TO ADDRESS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. KEY MESSAGE 2 DISCUSSES A POTENTIAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
LATE THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
- 2) A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
ALOFT, A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN A BROADER ZONAL FLOW REGIME. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS MORNING
AND ENTERING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH
THE EVENING AND SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE RADAR REFLECTIVITY START TO FILL
IN FROM THE WEST IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND THIS VERY LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF MID AND LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN AND ERODE
AWAY. SO THROUGH THE MORNING, VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL FALL WITH
MANY PLACES NOT MEASURING AND THOSE THAT DO WILL BE LIMITED TO A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. HI-RES
MODEL IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SOMEWHAT ROBUST LINE OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND DROPPING THROUGH. THERE IS EVEN SOME
SUPPORT FOR AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, WITH BOTH THE HREF
AND NBM CARRYING HIGH CHANCES (60+%) OF CAPE VALUES GETTING INTO
THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE. THIS PERIOD OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE
0.10-0.20" RANGE, BUT IT ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THERE TO
BE A STRIPE OR TWO WHERE AMOUNTS ARE MORE INTO THE 0.25-0.50"
RANGE. HARDLY A DROUGHT BUSTING RAINFALL, BUT EVERY LITTLE BIT
HELPS.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL YIELD ELEVATED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RISE INTO THE 3-3.5 KFT RANGE
ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. FREQUENT GUSTS INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED, AND SOME ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL EVENT THIS
WEEKEND, AS MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION DEEPENING AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. OVERALL POPS HAVEN'T DEVIATED TOO MUCH
SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER ONSET,
NOW SLATED FOR SATURDAY EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, STILL EXPECT
THE BETTER CHANCES (70-90%) TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
REGION BECOME WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
NONETHELESS, MODEL CONSISTENCY CONCERNING THE OVERALL TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL REMAINS FAIRLY POOR, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
PUT TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE BEHIND ANY ONE SOLUTION JUST YET. IN
FACT, THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS NOW SPLITS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD, RESULTING IN A LARGELY DRY FORECAST FOR
OUR AREA. WHILE THIS IS JUST ONE SOLUTION, IT SHOWCASES THAT WE
ARE FAR FROM NARROWING DOWN THE EXACT DETAILS JUST YET. IN TERMS
OF RAINFALL TOTALS, LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
70-80% CHANCE FOR QPF AMOUNTS > 0.5" AND 50-70% FOR QPF AMOUNTS
> 1.0". LASTLY, WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE, CAN'T RULE
OUT SEEING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
POCKETS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. SO, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI,
AND KSAV THOUGH LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE
WEST. SO FAR, THE RAIN HAS ONLY IMPACTED KSAV. THIS LIGHT RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL. INSTEAD, THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN AND PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL COME LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING, ROUGHLY FROM 22Z
THROUGH 02Z AT THE TERMINALS. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT AND COULD BRING
SHORT-LIVED MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL.
WE HAVE ADDED IN TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL 3 SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THE FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS
ALONG IT WILL CLEAR TO THE SOUTH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY, WITH GUSTS INCREASING
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE STARING BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT, AND ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH IT, WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY BY AROUND 02Z. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER LATE
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY FROM 08Z ONWARD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH, ELEVATED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SOLID 15-20 KNOTS OF FLOW FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS. THE SHELF WATERS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE MARINE
AREAS ARE QUITE COOL, MEANING THAT MIXING PROFILES WILL BE
QUITE LIMITED. HOWEVER, OUT NEAR THE 20 NM LINE IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE 40- 60 NM AREA OF THE OUTER GA
WATERS, FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE OTHER ZONE THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
CONSIDERED IS CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY. SPEEDS WILL DROP
OFF INITIALLY BUT THEN SURGE BACK CLOSER TO 15-20 KNOTS BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY.
THURSDAY ONWARD: BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THURSDAY, ALLOWING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
PRONOUNCED SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE
BREEZY S/SE WINDS SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS
LOOKS TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY AS DIRECTION SHIFTS MORE
W/NW IN THE WAKE OF FROPA. SEAS DURING THIS TIME COULD ALSO
APPROACH 6-8 FT. THUS, SCAS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE COMING DAYS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
374.
BSH/SST
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